Do or die for Gilas

Six games are left in the FIBA Asia/Pacific World Cup Qualifiers schedule and they’re all happening tonight.  Three of the five contests are critical with their outcome to determine if the Philippines or Jordan or Lebanon will advance.

The three crucial matchups are Gilas against Kazakhstan, Jordan against New Zealand and Lebanon against South Korea.  The three other clashes are no-bearing with Iran facing Australia, Japan meeting Qatar and China battling Syria.  Already qualified for the World Cup are New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Iran and host China.  Out of contention are Kazakhstan, Syria and Qatar.  Two slots are still available, meaning one of three teams – the Philippines or Jordan or Lebanon – won’t make it.

New Zealand is on top of one six-team group at 10-1.  South Korea is second at 9-2, followed by Lebanon, Jordan and China at 6-5 each.  Syria is last at 2-9.  In the other group, Australia is No. 1 at 10-1.  Japan and Iran are next at 7-4 each.  The Philippines is fourth at 6-5, Kazakhstan fifth at 4-7 and Qatar last at 2-9.

The top three finishers of each group qualify for the World Cup.  As host, China has an automatic ticket so it won’t figure in the standings.  So with China not in the equation, Jordan or Lebanon will end up third in their group.  Seven teams, excluding host China, will move on to the World Cup.  The seventh team will be the fourth placer with the better record over the fourth placer in the other group.

For the Philippines to qualify, it must beat Kazakhstan, no ifs and buts about it.  A win will improve the Philippines’ record to 7-5, good for fourth place in its group.  Japan is expected to trounce Qatar and will clinch No. 2 at 8-4.   If Iran loses to Australia, it drops to 7-5.  In a two-way tie, Iran will end up No. 3 and the Philippines No. 4.  Note that Iran beat Gilas twice, 81-78 and 78-70. So the best finish for the Philippines is fourth in its group.  To advance, Gilas must register a better record than the fourth placer in the other group.

Jordan and Lebanon are both at 6-5.  If they win their last games, their records improve to 7-5 which will be the Philippines’ record with a win over Kazakhstan.  In the event of a three-way tie, Lebanon will take No. 3 in its group and Jordan, No. 4.  A three-way logjam to include Gilas will leave the Philippines out in the cold because of an inferior quotient.  Lebanon is now +99 and Jordan +80.  The Philippines is a distant +17.

To make it to the World Cup, Gilas must not only beat Kazakhstan but Jordan or Lebanon or both must lose their last game.  A Gilas victory will improve its record to 7-5 and if Jordan or Lebanon loses, its record drops to 6-6.  If both Jordan and Lebanon lose, the team with the better quotient takes No. 3 and a ticket to the World Cup while the other is booted out of contention.  If the Philippines, Jordan and Lebanon lose their last game, Gilas will be out of the World Cup due to the quotient system.

Both South Korea and New Zealand can afford to lose their last game since they’re guaranteed to advance. In contrast, Jordan and Lebanon will be highly motivated to win because they’re playing at home.  If they both win, their tickets to the World Cup are guaranteed.

The Philippines’ destiny isn’t in its hands.  While it has to beat Kazakhstan, a win won’t assure a slot in the World Cup.  Jordan must lose to New Zealand or Lebanon must lose to South Korea or both for the Philippines to advance with a win over Kazakhstan.  Of course, a loss to Kazakhstan will eliminate the Philippines outright, regardless of how Jordan and Lebanon fare in their last game.

Gilas coach Yeng Guiao said he’ll worry about Jordan and Lebanon after beating Kazakhstan.  The Philippines’ only focus is to beat Kazakhstan because if it loses, the road to the World Cup abruptly comes to an end.  Beating Kazakhstan is the only priority and once a win is in the bag, then Gilas will pray for a win by either South Korea over Lebanon or New Zealand over Jordan.