Looking at the NCAA juniors finals: LSGH vs Mapua

MANILA, Philippines – For the second straight year in the NCAA juniors basketball tournament, it will be the La Salle Greenhills Junior Blazers versus the Mapua Red Robins.

LSGH routed Jose Rizal University, 97-61, in the Final Four while Mapua had to sweat it against San Beda, 75-67, to complete this finals match-up.

Last year, the Junior Blazers pulled the rug from the Red Robins, who were looking to annex their second straight NCAA Juniors title. During last year’s NBTC tournament, LSGH head coach Marvin Bienvenida bared that they “got lucky na nasungkit namin yung title.” It was this year where they were really expecting to really compete and bag it.

Of course, that is easier said than done because Mapua is raring to make one more go at it.

It is only right that the top two teams — LSGH (16-2) and Mapua (14-4) play for the title. Both squads are respectively first and second in offense and scoring although in team defense, LSGH is ranked fourth while Mapua is sixth.   

I’d say that both teams are evenly matched. Whoever is able to prevent one team from doing something that they do best will win.

What Mapua needs to do to win

Mapua should make sure that do-it-all forward Clint Escamis is healthy. The unflappable Escamis has defined this team the past two seasons. He will drive, shoot, rebound, play defense, and do whatever it takes to lead this team.

The Red Robins have gotten by Paolo Hernandez and Jonel Policarpio carrying them in recent games, but they do not get past LSGH without Escamis.

They will need Dan Arches and Roseler Sarias to also play well. The knock on the two can be falling in love without the outside shot too much. 

Brieden Smith and Grant Dennison need to make their presence felt. The bigs of Mapua can sometimes be an afterthought — score and rebounding little. In fact, they are one of the worst rebounding teams. Smith and Dennison collectively they average a forgettable and underwhelming 4.5 points and 6 rebounds per game. I hate to say that it’s a waste of space, but they will need to perform to go up against a LSGH squad that has added a few weapons to their arsenal.

They used a short rotation of six to eight players while LSGH goes up to 10-deep. Whichever team has more players contributing will give them a better chance to win.

What LSGH needs to do to win

What has gotten the Junior Blazers here is balanced perimeter and inside scoring (where they are among the best). If they can continue that formula and if they can find consistent help for Joel Cagulangan and Inand Fornillos, they will be able to defend their crown. They have Joshua David and RC Calimag to help out but will need more hands on deck.

Hence, the ability of Cagulangan to hit the open man. 

Both teams thrive on rebounding that fuels their fastbreak and allows them to pick up much needed second chance points. If LSGH can keep Mapua’s smaller players from grabbing those boards, they can win this. 

It will come down to the benches — who can rise to the occasion and which stars show up.

This is going to be a close series.