NCAA Season 94 Preview Part 1: The Contenders

MANILA, Philippines – Judging by the way the preseason went, all I can say is heavy is the head that wears the crown. Two-time champions San Beda will find themselves beset by challenges left and right. And while this is a long season — four months to be exact — they aren’t clear-cut favorites to annex the men’s basketball crown. Consistency over that stretch as well as health will be factors here.

Let’s wade right in with the tough questions.

Who will make the Final Four?

San Beda, Lyceum, Benilde and Letran.

San Beda are champs and you cannot discount them. For the first time since 2007, I didn’t see them as sharp as they normally are. It is easy to say that it is the preseason. If you understand the Bedan psyche, they want to win anything and everything. They looked vulnerable and well not as hungry, imposing, or with a chip in their shoulder as they had in the past. That can very well change, of course.

It is a luxury for Lions head coach Boyet Fernandez to have two game changers in Robert Bolick Jr. and Jayvee Mocon, who are incidentally in the Gilas program. While they have Clint Doliguez and James Canlas to add more scoring sock and Evan Nelle adds depth to the point guard chores, this will come down to how Donald Tankoua and Eugene Toba hold the fort for San Beda.

If they play solid ball, then they will handle the challenge of the other contenders.

Lyceum sort of slipped from everyone’s conversation when they didn’t parade a full lineup and didn’t make much noise. Yes, they won a PBA D-League title and that effort gives them the courage and experience to mount a title challenge to San Beda.

The ascent of College of St. Benilde makes it more difficult for them but in my opinion, the experience of the Pirates over the Blazers and their hunger will carry them through.

Make no mistake, the LPU Pirates are deep and talented. And highly motivated. Dangerous combinations if you ask me. They know the time is now (read: winning it) because San Beda will re-arm and St. Benilde will get even better. They can take heart from Ateneo’s successful campaign last season when the Blue Eagles figured out how to beat DLSU.

And on that note, we move over to Dela Salle University’s brother school, St. Benilde.

They are better for several reasons —  the players getting the system of their coaching staff, the maturity of Yankie Haruna, Edward Dixon and Clement Leutcheu, the rise of Unique Naboa as a top point guard, and the impact of Justin Gutang. Plus, they’ve got a highly motivated bench of role players.

They could upend many teams but I think they are still lacking big-game experience. I believe they will make the Final Four. But them winning it could take another year (plus, adding a top two guard) for depth.

The last of my picks for the Final Four are the Letran Knights. This is a win-now team because they are losing two studs after this season — JP Calvo and Bong Quinto. This is the perfect time for them to pull the rug from under any of the aforementioned teams.

What makes the competitive are the veteran additions in Bonbon Battiler, Christian Fajarito, Larry Muyang and Fran Yu plus rookies EJ Agbong and Jason Celis. If head coach Jeff Napa can figure out a way to bring out the best in all of them plus Jeo Ambohot and Christian Balagasay who lost a lot of minutes with the arrival of their reinforcements, they will be a tough team every step of the way.

Like I said about San Beda, Letran will go as far as their bigs can carry them because they need someone to match up against the Tankouas, Mike Nzeusseus and Leutcheus of this league.

Do any of the other teams have an outside chance?

Maybe San Sebastian and Mapua.

First, the Golden Stags. This team is fragile. They have a lot of issues. If they didn’t lose many of their players over coach issues, they would make it to the Final Four. But no. This team could implode. They have talent for sure but how mentally tough is this team?

Mapua teased with their talent. One thing they have going for them is the cohesion of their homegrown talent. But while they are good they lack quality big men to really compete. They have a lot of undersized players. Consistency is the key here. If those undersized bigs come to play every game, they can steal a final four slot. But the odds are against them.

So who will win it all?

It is San Beda’s to lose and Lyceum’s to win.

In part two of our preview, we will take a look at the other squads.