Preparing for 2019

It is said that politics is a never ending preoccupation in the Philippines. The electoral process officially happens every three years. However, just like Christmas, the actual electioneering has already begun – months before the official start of campaigning. 

Since the 2019 elections is not a presidential election year, the focus is on the senatorial elections. It is still too early to make any conclusions about political alliances. In past elections, the norm was that there would be two major senatorial tickets - one representing the administration and the other one representing the opposition with a handful of independents. It is still early in the campaign season but if the political landscape does not change, there could be changes in the conventional way that political alignments are made.

The opposition ticket, with its eight-person slate is already campaigning as a unified ticket. It has adopted the acronym MATH GRAD  for easy recall for its candidates. This acronym is derived from the first letter of their candidates’ family names – Macalintal, Alejano, Tañada, Hilbay, Gutoc, Roxas, Aquino, Diokno. The question is whether or not the opposition ticket will retain its eight-person slate or eventually adapt guest candidates.

The biggest political mystery is what will finally compose the final administration senatorial ticket. Hugpong, the party of Sara Duterte, has announced that it has a 14-person list. This is not a politically tenable position since the election is for 12 senators. As I said before, this 14-person list will lead to political intrigues and junking of candidates. 

The position of PDP-Laban has also become mysterious. This is supposed to be President Duterte’s party. However, Duterte has announced that he is going to come up with his own list of recommended candidates. The six-man slate that PDP-laban has announced so far is not yet working as a single ticket. Surprisingly, PDP-laban has also announced that it is endorsing Cerafica who is running against Cayetano whom Duterte has reportedly endorsed as the next Speaker of the House. The status of the PDP-Laban party as to whether it is the official administration party seems unclear at the moment.

There has never been an administration ticket, in past elections, that did not field a complete ticket. I am, therefore, assuming that there will be a 12-person administration senatorial ticket that will emerge.

The next mystery is the position of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Its main senatorial candidates – Grace Poe and JV Ejercito – are not on the administration ticket (as far as I know). But the two are definitely running. Serge Osmeña has also proclaimed that he is campaigning with Grace Poe. It seems that NPC intends to field its own senatorial ticket – which looks like a formidable ticket. 

Certainly a coalition between the senatorial tickets of the Liberal Party, NPC and independents like Nancy Binay would be a very strong political alliance. At this point most people would say that such an alliance is inconceivable. However, strange things have happened in Philippine politics in the past. I remember that in the 2007 senatorial elections, there was an alliance between the Liberal Party, led by Cory Aquino, and the camp of Erap Estrada. It was formed as a temporary alliance to contest the senatorial elections against the senatorial ticket of then President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The alliance won most of the senatorial seats in that election.

While there may be a few new developments in these elections, there are certain factors in Philippine politics that have not changed.  For example, there are non-traditional forces that will try again to win a few seats in the House and the Senate. These forces are normally those identified with the Left and the Center-Left or reformist wing. However, someone once wrote that before the 1992 presidential elections, Salonga was considered a strong contender while he was Senate President. When he was deposed as Senate President, he lost the support of the traditional forces in politics and had to rely on non-traditional forces. He lost badly in that election. 

The election for the House and for LGUs will basically remain the same as it has been ever since the Commonwealth period. The most enlightening book about Philippine political structures is The Rulemakers: How the Wealthy and Well Born Dominate Congress by Sheila S. Coronel, Yvonne Chua, Luz Rimban and Booma Cruz, published by the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism. Although it was published in 2004, its major findings are still relevant today. 

According to the publisher: “This book also shows how lawmakers have employed their powers to further enrich themselves and entrench their families in power. The powers to make laws, to conduct legislative inquiries, to examine the national budget, and to vet presidential appointments have been used by legislators to get benefits for themselves, their allies and their kin.”

One interesting chapter in this book is titled “The 7 M’s of Dynasty Building: A Summary of How Political Families Perpetuate Themselves”. The 7 M’s are Money, Machine, Media and/or Movies, Marriage, Murder and Mayhem, Myth and Mergers ( Alliances).

Local government politics make for fascinating reading. Two interesting books on this topic are Elections and Politics Philippine Style : A Case In Lipa by Masatake Kimura published by De La Salle University Press; and, Everyday  Politics in the Philippines: Class and Status Relations in a Central Luzon Village by Benedict Tria Kerkvliet published by New Day Publishers. 

We are still in the early stages of the campaign. However, I do not think that I am being melodramatic when  I say the results of the 2019 elections will drastically affect the future of the Filipino people. 

Creative writing classes for kids, teens, adults

Young Writers’ Hangout on Nov. 24 with DM Reyes(1:30pm-3pm; stand-alone session), writing in the workplace with Ginny Santiago on Nov. 17  (1:30-4:30 pm) at Fully Booked BGC.  For details and registration,  email [email protected].

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