Duterte to meet China’s Xi, navigate choppy sea issue

(First of two parts)

Belligerence begets belligerence

When President Rodrigo Duterte heads into a closed-door meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing later this month, he will have to navigate choppy diplomatic waters.

The opposition, some media, academia and many ordinary Filipinos hope he would convince China to do the right thing and quit disputed waters claimed by Manila as the West Philippine Sea and by Beijing as the South China Sea.

But this is wishful thinking.

Diplomacy is not about right or wrong. It’s realpolitik and not a moral issue. In diplomacy, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. Economic and military muscles are necessary to defend national interests.

Duterte may not be able to talk China into renouncing its sovereignty claim, but he appears ready to play hardball during the upcoming talks, ostensibly to fend off growing criticism at home.

He has pledged to raise, albeit belatedly, the 2016 ruling by a Hague arbitration tribunal that rejected China’s claim over most of the disputed waters.

The ruling, which Duterte controversially shelved in an opening gambit to mend fences with China, is a delicate issue that will put his wisdom and courage to the test again. China did not partake and considers the ruling null and void.

Hopefully, he will be able to extract an apology from China for the sinking of a Philippine fishing boat off the coast of Recto Bank in June and compensation for the 22 Philippine fishermen who were rescued by a Vietnamese crew hours after a Chinese vessel involved in a collision fled the scene.

Duterte will also be expected to defend the rights of Philippine fishermen to fish in the disputed waters and stop incursions of Chinese warships into Philippine waters.

A joint oil exploration deal with China is also on the table, with a Chinese offer to split it 60-40 in favor the Philippines. But will it be good enough for critics? 

Detractors see Duterte’s diplomatic about-face, which he coined “independent foreign policy”, and rapprochement with China as defeatist and dastardly. But supporters consider him rational and realistic.

Humor, hyperbole or honesty?

Under covert pressure from the United States, Duterte dared Washington last month to “fire the first shot” in a war against China and oust the Chinese from the disputed waters. He complained that the US is “always pushing us, egging us … making me the bait.”

Duterte has a penchant for humor and hyperbole, but reading between the lines, what he said was naked honesty.

Philippine soldiers are unquestionably fearless like Lapu-Lapu and his warriors who killed Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan in the Battle of Mactan in 1521. But it would be suicide to send the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to war against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). 

It would be a battle between David and Goliath. AFP has about 171,500 active personnel compared with the PLA’s 2 million strong. The PLA is armed to the teeth with advanced jet fighters, missiles, navy destroyers, nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier.

Defeating the world’s biggest armed forces with a slingshot today is unthinkable. Even with the Mutual Defense Treaty, there is no guarantee Uncle Sam will throw its full weight behind the Philippines. It would be like smashing an egg against a rock.

Like Duterte, former foreign secretary Albert del Rosario is a patriot, albeit their love for their country are manifested in different ways.

Duterte has opted for constructive engagement, while del Rosario has poked the dragon in the eye time and again.

There is little doubt del Rosario had the best interest of the Philippines in mind when he counted on the US to be the “honest broker” and negotiate with China regarding the simultaneous withdrawal of a Philippine warship and Chinese Coast Guard vessels to end a standoff in the disputed waters in 2012.  — Benjamin Kang Lim