Reforming the food system

Scientists who study plagues and pandemics are increasingly alarmed at what they have observed as an increasing frequency of pandemics, zoonotic diseases – in particular over the last two decades: SARS, H1N1, Ebola, MERS, and now, COVID-19.

SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, was first seen in 2003, and was believed to have started with bats, passed on to cats, and then humans. Contained and now declared non-existent, it was the first wake-up call on a global basis among health professionals to improve outbreak responses.

Another pandemic that broke out in 2009 was first detected in the US before eventually infecting the world. Now more popularly known as swine flu, the H1N1 virus is recognized as a combination of viruses from pigs, birds, and humans that cause people to get sick.

The outbreak of the Ebola disease was first noted in Central Africa. Studies showed that the virus is transmitted to people from fruit bats, porcupines, and non-human primates. It was the most complex Ebola virus strain that affected a large part of West Africa from 2014 to 2016.

MERS, or the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome was traced to a coronavirus believed passed on to humans through camels. It is highly infectious through close contact with an infected person, and kills three to four people out of 10 affected.

MERS had the biggest outbreak, after the Middle East in 2012, in South Korea in 2015 where a traveler returning from the Arabian Peninsula was believed to have brought it. The virus strain is believed to still be a global health threat and scientists continue to study it.

Virus playground

Currently, though, the H1N1 swine flu is what brings the biggest frown on scientists’ faces. They say that the way humans have transformed the swine business into a multi-billion dollar global business has brought with it immense risks, making today’s swine production a virus playground.

Recent evidence points that this virus, which killed some half a million people in 2009, is still around. Even in its weakened state, thanks to vaccines, it still poses a threat that could quickly become the source of a new pandemic today, yes, on top of the COVID-19 pandemic that still rages.

An ongoing surveillance program involving 2,500 pig farms in Europe have yielded data showing more than 50 percent of the livestock, especially in high population farms, are infected with influenza A viruses, which have the potential to become human pandemic viruses.

Scientists are concerned how these influenza A viruses exhibit an ability to mutate, and while the four types currently circulating in the monitored European pig farms are not likely to become the source of a future pandemic, there is no guarantee that any one of them will not adapt to become the source of another pandemic.

Another significant finding in the surveillance program is the growing prevalence of the influenza A viruses in the pigs. Already, 30 percent of the pig population were found to be positive with the virus. Because the pigs are slaughtered early, herd immunity is not achieved, leading to wider transmission.

The risk of a mutated swine flu virus being passed on to humans is a nightmare waiting to happen, although we don’t know exactly when this could happen. Science talks about a process called “reassortment,” when different flu viruses affecting the same pig swap genes to produce a new one.

A new flu virus named G4 is being monitored closely; although it is still found only in pigs, it has the potential to jump to humans. It is said to be unique, with its core being an avian flu virus, to which humans have no immunity at all.

Reforming the food system

These are, indeed, worrying discussions which has already brought together many advocates from varying areas – the environment, health, economy, food sustainability, and even business. The target is an examination of our global food system, from production to consumption.

Take pork farming, for example. Whereas before, having 200 pigs was the norm, today’s modern farms need thousands to make them profitable. Together with the practice of early slaughtering, pig farms become the perfect breeding ground for many flu viruses.

As we have come to realize with the African swine fever (ASF), a flu virus that infects pigs can cross borders, and if it is deadly, can become an epidemic that will easily wipe out populations of swine. Imagine what could happen if this was a virus lethal to humans.

Saving ourselves

An open letter sent to the G20 summit last year by the EAT Foundation’s advisory board contains warnings that resonate deep. “Not one of the measures in our current field of focus – vaccine development, social distancing, testing and tracing, the wearing of masks, economic shutdown – can address the root causes behind zoonotic pandemics, much less save us from the far more dangerous climate disruptions or the accelerating extinction crisis already underway.”

Zoonotic diseases, the letter states, are costly. The current pandemic has already set back the global economy by as much as $82 trillion in the next five years, a worst-case estimate made by the Cambridge University.

Later this year, the United Nation is expected to call for a Food Systems Summit where “bold new actions” are promised to “awaken the world” in transforming the way people produce, consume, and even think about food. The seeds of this “revolution” have already been sown, but whether they can flower in time to save the world is a big question mark.

Still, we have to do our best to save ourselves.

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