‘Obliterated’

Donald Trump’s word for the week is “obliterated.” As in: “completely obliterated.”

It is unusual for the US President to use words like this one. On a daily basis, his vocabulary is limited to fifth-grade level. As in: “big, beautiful bill” to describe that encompassing piece of legislation that will send the American public debt through the roof.

He found the word “obliterated” moments after US Air Force stealth bombers were dispatched across the globe to drop the dreaded “bunker busters” on Iranian nuclear facilities. These bombs are the most powerful conventional munitions available. They were used to end with finality Iran’s ability to fabricate nuclear warheads.

Trump is legendary for his boasting. And his lying. And his utter lack of circumspection.

His declaration that the US bombing run – akin to a drive-by shooting on steroids – was unduly reckless, however. It was a declaration made without waiting for the routine bomb damage assessment. Prudence is too much to expect from Trump.

It now turns out that the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities was less destructive than Trump painted it to be. The Pentagon arrived at this conclusion after reviewing all the evidence available.

Experts have earlier warned of this possibility. For all their awesome power, the bunker busters could penetrate only 60 feet of solid rock. The Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow was buried under 90 feet of granite. It is imaginable that the core technologies hidden under rock survived the bunker busters intact. The facility was designed to withstand bombardment by nuclear bombs.

The Pentagon’s leaked assessment of the bomb damage is echoed by Israel’s own assessment. The spectacular bombing run did set back Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons by weeks – or perhaps two years.

The Islamist regime in Tehran will surely rebuild their nuclear capacity. In a few months, we will all be back at square one. Iran remains a nuclear menace and an existential threat for Israel.

Then there is the matter of all the uranium Iran had managed to enrich close to weapons-grade levels. No one knows where the estimated 900 pounds of enriched uranium was squirreled away. That material could be processed into something frighteningly lethal.

On the basis of his overestimate of his bombing run, Trump thinks all the complex problems in the Middle East have been solved. In Trump’s mind, the world is really a simple place. Everything could be solved by mere pronouncement.

Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. This will, at best, be a tenuous arrangement. These two countries will be at each other’s throats for generations to come. But the fragile ceasefire at least gives the world some breathing space.

After the ceasefire was called, oil prices retreated dramatically. Today, oil prices are actually lower than they were before Israel initiated its attack on Iran two weeks ago. Next week, we can expect a rollback as dramatic as this week’s shock.

But many changes have happened. By attacking Iranian nuclear sites, the US crossed a vital red line. American facilities everywhere are now targets for the sort of asymmetrical warfare Iran prefers to wage.

The world did not cheer Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. The aggressive decision broke all the rules of an international order that values sovereignty. America’s NATO allies observed a studied silence about the attack. Japan and South Korea decided not to honor the invitation to attend this week’s NATO summit meeting.

After Trump attacked the rest of the world with arbitrary tariffs, America lost the confidence of the rest of the world. It is no longer the bastion for global stability. It has become the principal source of chaos and uncertainty.

When the US invaded Iraq – on the baseless excuse the Saddam Hussein regime was accumulating weapons of mass destruction – America’s allies rallied behind her, forming the Coalition of the Willing to support the invasion. This week, we heard no declarations of support for Trump’s unilateral actions.

Trump has been carving an isolationist path for US foreign policy. Standing alliances have not been respected. Trump even aggravated allies of long standing by announcing his intent to annex Canada and acquire Greenland. He has withdrawn US support for the World Health Organization and basically largely closed USAID. He pressured US allies to escalate their defense spending, such that Japan withdrew from trade negotiations on precisely that issue.

Having set his country on an isolationist path, Trump should not be surprised that, in the face of a serious crisis in the Middle East, America stands isolated.

This isolation is the most important thing that changed the past few weeks. It is, for the US a strategic weakness. The aging superpower can no longer rally nations under its lead.

It is one thing to be able to send stealth bombers across the globe to bomb governments the US disagrees with. It is quite another thing to command the world’s respect. With Trump as president, the US commands no respect in the community of nations.

The bomb damage assessment coming out of the Pentagon only serves to widen Trump’s credibility gap. Previously, other governments took whatever Trump says with a grain of salt. Now they need a pound of salt to give his utterances any weight.

With the US isolated, other fissures in the world order and other currents in international affairs will become more telling.