A new war

I was on a plane traveling back to the Philippines from Europe via the Middle East after a week-long family trip when I heard the news.

After several hours of sleep, I turned on my phone and the first alert I saw was that Trump had ordered strikes in Iran, officially making the United States part of the Israel-Iran conflict.

It was a shocking and jittery way to wake up. I wondered if our pilot had deviated from the flight path because the usual route from Europe to the Middle East often skirts between Iran and Israel, according to the map.

It all felt so surreal.

My immediate thoughts went to the safety of Filipinos in the affected countries and how this would impact global oil prices and, in turn, the Philippines.

Getting ready

This is not our war and yet, make no mistake, this will hit us big time.

Here’s what I believe is going to happen. The situation will get worse before it gets better and it’s no thanks to the move of the US to join Israel’s attacks on Iran.

Dark clouds of uncertainty now hover over the world economy and vulnerable economies like ours are at risk. For one, the Philippine economy is easily affected by changes in oil prices and it is largely dependent on remittances from overseas Filipino workers.

President Marcos and his Cabinet must work double time to implement a plan that would help cushion the impact of this new war on the Philippines. These include providing subsidies to the transport sector, improving food supply chains and ensuring the safety of affected OFWs.

Inflation

One major risk the government must be mindful of is inflation, not just because of a potential wage hike and the typhoons but also because of the conflict in the Middle East.

“The conflict in the Middle East has made further easing more difficult, as higher oil prices add pressure to inflation and the peso,” according to BPI lead economist Jun Neri.

He warned that the geopolitical tensions could prevent the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas from cutting rates further even as the BSP said another cut remained possible this year.

In all, Trump’s tariffs and the Israel-Iran war threatened to push up inflation around the world. The Philippines won’t be spared, especially with supply side pressures that could be affected by the coming typhoons.

Remittances

Another major thing that will be affected for sure are dollar remittances from OFWs.

If the war escalates, the global economy will suffer and the millions of OFWs in the Middle East, though not directly in the war path, would be affected and in turn, tighten their belts.

Some may even be retrenched. This would drastically affect their families in the Philippines.

The travel industry will likewise be affected, including our tourism sector because as it is now, many of the flights passing over the Middle East are already being rerouted.

Indeed, this war seems distant, yet it will hit home in so many ways.

Like many others, I am in disbelief over what Trump did, especially after he promised that he would put an end to wars and be a president that would push for peace.

This is war by any definition and something that Trump vowed he would not do.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. For New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, there are many uncertainties, including how Iran will strike back at the US.

“Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, ‘The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.’”

As I write this, Iran is already moving to close the Strait of Hormuz, which, Kristof said, would be “a big blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait.”

Kristof said the third and final question is the largest:

“Is this the end of the conflict or the beginning? Optimists such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel seem to believe that he and the United States can end both Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian regime. Then again, Netanyahu was a strong supporter of the Iraq war and thought that would bring change to Iran as well; instead, the Iraq war benefited Iran.

“Even if Iran’s enrichment capacity is gone, the expertise to enrich uranium is probably not possible to extinguish. So if the regime remains, this may be more of a setback than an end to the nuclear program.”

In the end, wars may start with a decision by one or two men or with bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, but their ripples are far reaching and lasting.

Wars will affect ordinary lives across the globe. The Marcos administration must stay vigilant because the impact of this distant conflict will surely hit home.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow her on X @eyesgonzales. Column archives at EyesWideOpen on FB.