An alternative future China

Recent headlines have again featured the attack of a Chinese Coast Guard vessel against a Philippine maritime research vessel in Philippine territorial waters. The question is whether this aggressive behavior will be a permanent, regular occurrence for the next 20 years or even longer. Will China, on its maritime borders, engage in more confrontational acts that risk sparking conflicts not just with the Philippines but also with other neighbors like Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam?

One speculation is that these conflicts will continue while Xi Jinping is the ruler of China. The problem with that is that Xi might stay in power for a longer time yet and possibly live even into his 90s, which is two decades from now.

The previous ruler in China, Deng Xiaoping, retained leadership until his death at the age of 92 in 1997.

Conditions in the South China Sea could even get worse if China decides to start a war with Taiwan. After all, this is an operation for which the Chinese military has long been preparing. There is one possible alternative that would allow a degree of coexistence between China and its neighbors that will not require an outright war. This coexistence may not be especially friendly but will at least remove the friction and animosity that exist today. It is hoped that Beijing will realize that it cannot wage a big war and still attain economic security for its population. Its aging society and regional economic stability are necessary to sustain China’s economic growth. The consequences of a major conflict will hopefully motivate China to arrive at some form of rapprochement with its neighbors.

The core objectives of the Xi administration are to make China become wealthy and militarily strong at the same time. However, this search for global prosperity and military supremacy will not be easy for China. Unlike past imperial powers like the British Empire and presently, the United States under Trump, China’s growth largely depends on its supply chain, investments in other countries and its quest to embed itself in new markets. If China engages in imperialistic actions such as its territorial claims in Taiwan, the South China Sea and disputed borders with countries like India, Japan and the Philippines, its potential partners may question whether they can rely on China.

It is possible that China may become more confrontational in its approach to the world. This may happen if the Chinese Communist Party wants to see the country assert itself on the international stage. But neighboring countries in Asia and even farther out will find it hard to trust a China that chooses to define its own boundaries.

If China chooses to wage a war over Taiwan, the world will see that this motivation is primarily of an imperialistic nature. Such a war cannot be motivated by economic rationality because China does not need Taiwan for it to become an economic superpower.

The use of military force against Taiwan would also result in huge human and economic costs of the violence that would follow. Asian states will worry that China will follow the path of Russia in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Recent examples have shown that great powers do not necessarily win decisive victories, even in the invasion of much weaker countries. Some of these examples are Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US invasion of Iraq.

Any attempted seizure of Taiwan will lead to the imposition of sanctions against China. This would be catastrophic because again, China’s economy is heavily dependent on foreign supply chains and foreign markets. Sanctions from western countries would clearly disrupt the Chinese economy over the medium to the long term. Russia was able to turn to China to limit the damage of sanctions after it launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China does not have similar benefactors to provide it with new supply chains or markets. The Third World countries will not be able to supply China’s needs in case of sanctions from the Western world.

China has had serious internal problems that have resulted in severe inflation. It was inflation in 1949 that helped the Communist Party defeat Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist forces. In the 1980s, inflation rate of 20-30 percent led to widespread demonstrations and political protests that ended bloodily in Tiananmen Square in June 1989.

Any attack on Taiwan would therefore risk another inflationary crisis and have serious effects on social stability. This is what the CCP fears most. Its ability to impose authoritarian rule is based on its promise to always provide economic stability and prosperity to its people.

It is also possible that China could undergo some mild geopolitical changes, such as moderating its authoritarianism and giving its citizens some freedoms without necessarily becoming a liberal democratic nation.

According to Alexander Gaduev, a geopolitical observer: “… long-term domestic trends will define China’s future. These include the country’s need to care for an older and sicker population, the rise to maturity of a generation that did not grow up with the belief that the United States is China’s primary enemy and the need to create higher-value jobs with a shrinking working age population. The current downturn in domestic professional middle class employment can be solved only by long-term solutions that involve China doing a lot more work to become a trusted and cooperative actor in the global economy.”

Hopefully, China may succeed in fulfilling its aspirations for geopolitical and economic power without engaging in military conflicts with its neighbors.

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