Senatorial winners; banks have P5-trillion idle deposits

I averaged the 2025 results of the OCTA Research (April 10-16) and SWS (April 11-15) surveys on senatoriables and here are the percentages and the equivalent in number of votes (assuming 45 million vote for senators, an extravagant assumption given that only half of voters vote for senators and the ballot fill-up rate averages just nine names):

• Bong Go, 54.6 percent or 24.57 million;

• Erwin Tulfo, 52.1 percent or 23.45 million;

• Tito Sotto, 38.2 percent or 17.19 million;

• Ben Tulfo, 38.2 percent or 17.19 million;

• Pia Cayetano, 36.3 percent or 16.33 million;

• Bato dela Rosa, 36.3 percent or 16.33 million;

• Lito Lapid, 35.5 percent or 15.97 million;

• Bong Revilla, 34.9 percent or 15.7 million;

• Ping Lacson, 32.9 percent or 14.8 million;

• Abby Binay, 32.4 percent or 14.58 million;

• Camille Villar, 29.2 percent or 13.14 million; and

• Manny Pacquiao, 27.7 percent or 12.46 million.

With a fighting chance to make it into the Magic 12 are: 13. Bam Aquino, 26.7 percent or 12.0 million votes; 14. Willie Revillame, 26.5 percent or 11.92 million; 15. Imee Marcos, 25.95 percent or 16.67 million; 16. Kiko Pangilinan, 25.7 percent or 11.56 million and 17. Benhur Abalos, 23.4 percent or 10.53 million.

Presidential sister Imee Marcos has an average of 25.95 percent voting for her in the OCTA/SWS polls or 11.67 million votes, about 782,250 votes short from No. 12, Pacquiao’s 12.46 million likely votes. But then before Imee beats Pacquiao, she will have to overcome first, Revillame and second, Bam Aquino – quite a herculean ordeal. Conclusion: Imee has a strong chance of losing.

In past senatorial elections, a senator wannabe could overtake a rival’s lead of up to two million votes – depending on how much she spends – at the grassroots and on the people running the electoral machinery, including Comelec itself. Imee is No. 17 in the OCTA survey and 14 in the SWS poll, both for April 2025.

From 28 percent voting for her in the January 2025 SWS poll to April’s 24 percent, she has lost four percentage points, equivalent to 1.8 million votes.  From 38 percent in the February 2025 OCTA poll to 27.9 percent in April 2025, the eldest Marcos kid has lost 10.1 percentage points or a whopping 4.54 million statistical votes.

Still, says SWS, “In statistical contention for the 12th place are Revillame, Willie Wil (IND) and Marcos, Imee R. (NP) tied in 13th-14th place, with 24 percent each.”

Says OCTA on its own April 2025 poll:

“Camille Villar with (30.4 percent) support, former senator Emmanuel ‘Manny’ Pacquiao (30.3 percent) and former senator Kiko Pangilinan (30.3 percent) – each backed by around 30 percent of adult Filipinos – currently rank within the 10th to 18th spots. Willie ‘Wil’ Revillame, Benhur Abalos, Senator Imelda ‘Imee’ Marcos and Senator Francis “Tol” Tolentino are on the list of probable winners. All four have a voting preference of approximately 28 percent, placing them within the 11th to 19th spots in the rankings. Meanwhile, Phillip “Ipe” Salvador, with 24.4 percent support, ranked 12th to 20th.”

Economic slowdown

In its April 24, 2025 economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees an economic slowdown in the whole of Asia. From 4.6 percent growth in 2024, Asia’s GDP will slow down to 3.9 percent growth in 2025 and to 4.0 percent in 2026.

China’s economic growth stalls to 4.0 percent in 2025 and 2026, from 5.0 percent in 2024; India to 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent in 2026 from 6.5 percent in 2024; Singapore halves to 2.0 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026 from 4.4 percent; Indonesia to 4.7 percent both in 2025 and 2026 from 5.0 percent; Vietnam to 5.2 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026 from 7.1 percent and Thailand, to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026, from 2.5 percent in 2024.

From 5.7 percent in 2024, Philippine economic growth slows down a bit to 5.5 percent this 2025 before recovering slightly at 5.8 percent in 2026 – a combined loss in two years of 1.1 percentage points in value of economic production. On a P28-trillion GDP, 1.1 percent is equivalent to lost production of P308 billion. If every P2 million could create one job, P308 billion is equivalent to 154,000 jobs not created or probably lost forever.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) should be lowering interest rates, now, to lower cost of production and boost the production of prime goods like rice, whose price today is half of inflation. It has not done so.

The BSP has even increased the minimum guidance interest rate for bank loans to 5.5 percent. So if last year, you could get a one-year loan for only five percent interest, this year, that same loan will cost you at least 5.5 percent – plus all kinds of bank fees, charges and taxes which, taken to together, will increase the effective price of your loan to more than eight percent per year – almost four times the claimed February 2025 inflation rate of 2.1 percent.

In theory, the imputed price of your money is your inflation rate. That’s 2.1 percent as of February 2025. Now, your banker demands from you, if you borrow, 3.8 to four times, probably more, than the cost of that money. Is that fair?

Yet our banking system has an ocean of excess deposits – money that should be lent out to boost production, create jobs, sustain the economy in these times of trade shocks and uncertainty.

In 2024, our banking system collected P20.37 trillion in deposits. By February 2025, it has lent only P15.17 trillion, leaving a whopping P5.2 trillion of idle deposits not parlayed as loans.  Lost opportunity.

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