Are you prepared for the big one?

Strong earthquakes can definitely kill hundreds, even thousands, when they strike communities that are not adequately prepared. Many lives will be lost in an instant, countless properties ruined and social unrest could worsen the chaos if destructive tremors occur.

The recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck Myanmar reminded us of our vulnerability against this natural calamity. As of today, more than 3,600 were reported dead and hundreds of structures were heavily damaged. Unlike other hazards such as typhoons that can cause landslides and widespread inundations, earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted. Strong tremors can happen when least expected, unannounced and would not discriminate. Everyone can be a victim.

The big one, the strong earthquake that we fear, can happen in the Greater Metro-Manila area and nearby provinces. We are all hoping that we shall be spared from this catastrophic disaster. Nobody wants this to be experienced by a country that is already beset with economic, political and social challenges. I am amongst the many who pray hard that this shall not take place forever.

But based on science, as explained by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology Authority (Phivolcs), the big one will really materialize in the future. Dr. Teresito Bacolcol, chief of the agency, explained that the West Valley Fault System will be the reason for the so called “big one.” This system shifts every 400-600 years. History has recorded that its last movement was in 1658. Therefore, 2058 will be its 400th year, the lower margin of its expected movement cycle. This is the reason why many sectors, especially the government, are now more seriously evaluating the level of preparedness to mitigate the impact of this dreaded earthquake. And after the reports on how devastated Myanmar is, the level of awareness on earthquakes has significantly increased.

Of course, this is still an estimation, and we must not think that this fault system will surely move as scheduled. Again, we are deeply hoping that this grave incident will never happen.

The possible impact of the big one is beyond terrible. In order to fully understand the aftermath of this very strong tremor, Phivolcs, the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) conducted a comprehensive study in 2004. The highlights of this study, the “Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro-Manila,” covered how many casualties there could be, the number of structures such as houses, buildings, bridges and other critical facilities that will be damaged.

The number of casualties, persons who can die immediately, is from 30,000 to 50,000-plus. Another 160,000 at least will be seriously injured and are in danger of not surviving, depending on the capability of the medical and health care system at that point. Dozens of bridges and thousands of houses will collapse, along with several buildings. Simultaneous fires will aggravate the mayhem. Social unrest might not be avoided due to the confusion and despair amidst the widespread havoc.

Engineering solutions would primarily save our residents. The structures must be strong enough to withstand an 8.5-magnitude earthquake at the minimum. Some of my friends in the construction industry are, in fact, designing and building houses that can handle even a 10-magnitude tremor. In other words, the design of our houses, buildings, schools, hospitals and other structures must be geared towards resilience. They must all be compliant with the safety provisions of our building code. Those that are already built must undergo a professionally done structural integrity audit to find out if retrofitting is necessary to strengthen them.

Construction materials too must not be sub-standard, especially the steel that are being used. We all know that sub-standard steel proliferate the market, especially when customers are even encouraged by retailers to buy the cheaper options. And also, “no-build zones” must be strictly followed. Landslide and liquefaction prone areas must be prohibited from accommodating residential and commercial structures. The local government units, the ones who issue the construction and occupancy permits, must diligently fulfill their mission to make a no non-sense process for these permits.

The engineering solutions and the adherence to the right location for structures are our people’s first line of defense against earthquakes. As such, casualties and destructions can be prevented or at least minimized.

Muscle memory on our collective reaction during the earthquake must be perfectly instinctive. Usually, strong tremors last only for seconds to a minute. This short span of time can spell the difference between survival or death.

Duck, cover and hold must be second nature to everyone already. Drills on how to walk fast towards open spaces are crucial to getting out of harm’s way, especially when after-shocks would follow. Go bags, medicine pouches and other necessities for lifeline must be secured. All families, organizations, offices, schools and neighborhoods must squarely and bravely discuss how to react during and after emergencies. By doing so, successfully reuniting with your family and loved ones after a killer quake has higher chances.

We must catch up in our preparations for the “big one.” The engineering solutions must be primarily pursued because the more resilient our buildings are, the lesser victims there will be. Again, I pray with everyone that we be spared from this. But at the same time, let’s try to join all the efforts to save everyone if indeed, this shall happen.