A tidal wave of COVID-19 infections in China?

Numerous reports coming out of China seem to indicate an explosion of COVID-19 cases in many parts of the country, including the capital of Beijing. In a news item from CNN, what used to be a bustling center of activity is now a virtual ghost city with deserted streets, shopping centers with few or no customers and restaurants that are closed to diners and just offering take-outs or deliveries.

Just a week after authorities eased the strict “zero-COVID policy” due to massive protests, residents are keeping their distance from each other for fear of getting infected as the outbreak continues to spread. Complicating the situation is the “lack of clear data” on the extent of the spread of the virus because testing requirements have been rolled back. Previously ubiquitous “COVID testing booths, health code scanning signs and lockdown barriers are being removed at dizzying speed,” CNN also reported.

Even China’s National Health Commission seems to be throwing its hands up as it is having difficulty keeping track of all the new COVID-19 cases, admitting that “it is impossible to accurately grasp the actual number of asymptomatic infections” which formed bulk of the official caseload of 1.89 million to date – although many are convinced that the number of cases could actually be much higher than what is on record.

According to former American Chamber of Commerce in China chairman James Zimmerman, the sudden surge of cases in Beijing came on “like a runaway freight train,” with the number of people getting infected in his office spiking to 90 percent in just a matter of days.

Some experts are saying that China’s decision to relax restrictions is like opening a floodgate of infections, noting that this couldn’t have come at a worse time as it overlaps with the onset of the cold and flu season.

World Health Organization emergencies director Mike Ryan, however, says that the current spike of infections in China is not attributable to the sudden easing of the draconian zero-COVID policy measures because the virus has been spreading “intensively” long before the Chinese government’s decision to lift restrictions, and warned instead about the need to ramp up vaccination, especially among the elderly and vulnerable populations.

According to scientists, a new Omicron subvariant identified as BF.7 is responsible for a wider surge of infections spreading across the country. Compared to other Omicron subvariants, the BF.7 has the “strongest infection ability” with a quicker pace of transmission, shorter incubation period and a greater capacity to infect those who have previously contracted COVID-19. Considering that many virus carriers are also asymptomatic, containing the surge would be difficult and could overwhelm the health care system, health experts also warned.

China says it has vaccinated 90 percent of its population, but the rate of full vaccination among the elderly, particularly those above 80 years old, is less than 66 percent, with only 40 percent receiving booster shots. Reports say vaccine hesitancy is high, fueled by perceptions that Chinese anti-COVID vaccines that are based on an older technology employing an inactivated virus are not very effective in combating the new variants compared to western-made vaccines employing mRNA technology.

Germany’s chief spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit advised the Chinese leadership earlier to start using west-made mRNA vaccines Pfizer and Moderna as a way out of the pandemic, pointing to the experience of Germany and Europe and other countries that are now in the “cleaning up phase of the pandemic.”

A Chinese biotechnology company called WalVax has developed an mRNA vaccine, but is not yet allowed for use in China – although it has been approved for use in Indonesia last September.

Many countries including the United States have offered to help China with vaccinations, but the latter has yet to respond to the offer. The US has been “the largest donor of vaccines in the world… we stand ready to help any country that needs help,” said White House coronavirus response coordinator Ashish Jha.

One major concern is the lack of access to medicine that is also limited in supply. However, a Chinese pharma distribution company has recently inked a deal to distribute Pfizer’s oral anti-viral drug Paxlovid, which has been shown to reduce the risk of hospitalization and even death by 89 percent if taken within five days after the onset of symptoms.

What is worrisome, however, are reports that cheap but unauthorized “generic” Paxlovid drugs are being sold in the black market online, and that these drugs – most likely fakes – are getting sold out fast. This is something that authorities must look into to prevent the situation from worsening.

Of course, the whole world is worriedly watching because if the virus outbreak is not contained, there is a possibility of a new, more lethal virus strain coming out, especially with the anticipated travel rush for the Lunar New Year in January, with a Yale public health expert saying it could become a “super-spreader event.”

China should accept the offer of help by the US and other countries to prevent a potential mutation of another deadly virus. But more importantly – if there is any lesson to be learned from what has happened to the whole world during the past three years, is that cooperation and timely sharing of information is key to preventing another pandemic catastrophe that we are still reeling from up to this day.

May God have mercy on us all!

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]