Working for peace but preparing for war

The US and China are on a collision course as both battle to become the economic, military and geopolitical superpower of the 21st century.

The deciding theater of this battle is the West Philippine Sea and the Philippines stands in the middle of the crossfire. That said, the Marcos administration will do well to encourage strategic restraint from both superpowers. Mr. Marcos must establish a rules-based code of conduct to prevent the US or China from prevailing over the other. The idea is for both parties, and all territorial claimants, to co-exist despite conflicting agendas.

Why is the West Philippine Sea so important to China?

A submissive Duterte government allowed China to militarize the West Philippine Sea without consequence. The seas serve as China’s strategic flashpoint to further her territorial expansion, beginning with Taiwan. China is constitutionally mandated to reclaim Taiwan while it aspires to control the First Island Chain, which includes the Philippines. Whoever controls the First Island Chain gains military control over the entire Asia-Pacific region. As an added bonus, militarizing the West Philippine Sea insulates the Chinese mainland from attacks.

Having dominion over the West Philippine Sea will allow China to control world trade, as the waters serve as the nautical superhighway where two-thirds of world trade traverses. Freedom of navigation, passage and overflight will fall solely on China’s discretion. Additionally, the communist state becomes self-sufficient in fuel and food, given the immense natural resources beneath the disputed waters. So you see, subsuming the West Philippine Sea guarantees China of supreme military and economic advantages over the US.

After Taiwan, the Philippines is the most vulnerable country in this state of affairs. Hence, it is incumbent upon the Marcos administration to take the lead to establish a rules-based code of conduct in the disputed area, leveraging on ASEAN. After all, the Philippines is not the only country whose territories are being illegally subsumed. The same is true for Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei, albeit to a lesser extent. ASEAN has the most to lose in the event of war.

ASEAN’s gravitas cannot be denied. Collectively, ASEAN has the world’s 5th largest economy with a 680-million population and respectable military capabilities. Upon the initiative of President Marcos, ASEAN can be encouraged to speak with one voice and insist on a free and open Indo-Pacific region. A region not defined by superpower rivalry but by dialogue, cooperation, development and prosperity – all underpinned by the rule of law.

What works to our advantage is that President Marcos operates for the interest of the Philippines and ASEAN, not to the interest of China as Mr. Duterte appeared to have done. This was crystal clear when he said: “We will not allow a single millimeter of our maritime coast (sic) and up to 200-kilometer rights to be trampled on… We have a very important ruling in our favor and we will use it to continue to assert our territorial rights. It is not a claim, it is already a territorial right.” Mr. Marcos’ position is in stark contrast to Mr. Duterte’s defeatist attitude.

Beyond ASEAN, President Marcos will do well to engage like-minded nations to keep the peace in the region. This includes Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and, of course, the United States.

But while diplomacy is the best way forward, we cannot discount the probability of war.   This is why the modernization and capacity-building of the AFP is critical. We must do it quickly. We must also augment our own capabilities by strengthening our relationships with allies, especially the United States, in whom we share a 70-year-old Mutual Defense Treaty.

Unlike China who embraces us with one arm and stabs us with the other, the US’s intention is to ensure the independence, sovereignty and continued prosperity of all states in the Indo-Pacific region. This was made clear in President Biden’s speech during his recent trip to Tokyo. The status quo works to the advantage of America and the rest of the democratic world.

How can President Marcos reboot relations with the US following six years of estrangement under Duterte?

The first is to elevate diplomatic engagements. A senior American political adviser suggested that the US organize a 2+2 Ministerial Meet between the secretaries of the National Defense and secretaries of State of both countries. This would be an ideal preamble to the relationship robot.

Said ministerial meet can be followed by a state visit by Marcos to Washington to discuss the ways in which our strategic cooperation can move forward. In that meeting, mutual alliance commitments can be refreshed and a new, shared vision for a peaceful Indo-Pacific Region can be established.

The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) must be accelerated to allow Philippine forces to acquire more military capabilities. It will also allow the US to rotate troops, refuel and re-arm in Philippine military bases.

The Philippines must deepen its political, economic and legal ties with the US and other democratic states. The Senate’s ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is crucial, as is the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), as proposed by President Biden.

On the part of the US, Washington must help the Philippines stave off China’s aggression in the West Philippine Sea. Its presence, in light of our Mutual Defense Treaty, can hardly be felt and its military capacitation remains anemic (the $60-million package announced by President Biden to strengthen ASEAN’s maritime security is too small to matter). American must commit to our treaty in a more substantive manner, especially now that we are under a less biased administration.

Finally, the US and our community of democratic allies must not allow China to get away with its unprovoked aggression. It must attach diplomatic and economic costs, by way of sanctions, for it bullying tactics and unlawful acts.

President Marcos must work to maintain peace in our backyard. But he must also prepare for war.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan