Political dynasty ruined Sri Lanka

The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine invasion are still hogging the news in the main and social media that there is little coverage of the happenings in Sri Lanka. But with the Philippine elections in a week’s time, there are abject lessons we should learn with the causes and effects of the current dismal situation of Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka, a developing country of 22 million people wracked by demonstrations that have already killed and injured some of the citizens, is technically economically bankrupt as they are unable to import fuel, medicines, and basic necessities not produced in the country. The country has defaulted on its loan obligations, and their currency has been devalued even if there are already restrictions in the importation of goods including medicines. There are daily 13-hour brownouts and the prices of medicines have risen by 40%. The finance minister is pleading with the World Bank, IMF, and China for bailout loans to stave off larger demonstrations or a revolution which could be triggered if social conditions further deteriorates. Some socio-political analysts have contended that the current government dominated by the Rajapaksa Family bankrupted Sri Lanka in 30 months. The reality is that this family has dominated and mismanaged the country for decades, and the people now want all of the family members to leave the government.

There are currently five Rajapaksa family members in the Sri Lanka government. Mahinda Rajapaksa is prime minister, younger brother Gotabaya is president, Basil is finance minister, Chamal is transport and agriculture minister, and Namal is minister for sports and youth. The eldest is Mahinda at 79 years old, and the youngest is Namal who is 35 and is groomed to be president. Mismanagement of the economy with the attendant corruption led to huge budget deficits. Then, they moved closer to China to secure $7 billion worth of loans for infrastructures that were overpriced and did not generate the revenues. These were compounded by the pandemic that dried up tourism revenues and investments that by the end of 2021 the government was fiscally bankrupt. Since the government positions have been rotated among the family members for years, the people are now blaming the family for all the problems and want them all out of the government. The old issue of Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s human rights violations/war crimes for 40,000 deaths during the civil war with the Tamils, has been resurrected as the local investigation was never completed after the family refused an international investigation.

The next few weeks will determine the fate of Sri Lanka. It could become a failed state and amble along for years like Venezuela, but it does not have the oil resources of Venezuela which is propping up the government, so it will be in a worse situation. The Rajapaksa Family is exploring the formation of a coalition government, with some of the family members taken out to be able to convince the creditors of a new responsible government. The depth and complexity of their problem needs an overhaul of taxation and other revenue capabilities of the government, and disciplining the expenditure side which may take years. The Sri Lankans are in for more years of suffering.

The similarity/mirroring of Sri Lanka’s development and situation happened and is happening in many developing countries, including the Philippines with family dynasties in their governments, and especially with populists leaders who promises largesse to their followers. As in the Philippine experience, the bigger the family dynasty in the region, the less economically developed the region is. The family dynasty treats their political fiefdom as a family corporation to promote their financial interests, crowding out all other investors and businesses in the area.

We really should not vote for family dynasties in the coming May 9 election.