Rebound

For some reason, our mainstream media chose to bury the news in the business pages – despite its implications for every Filipino’s quality of life.

Last Thursday, NEDA chief Karl Chua announced the door to economic recovery was “fully open.” We will not only return to pre-pandemic levels early this year. We will likely achieve high middle-income status in the second half.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), our GDP performed better than expected. Fourth quarter growth rose to 7.7 percent, higher than both official and market expectation. For the whole of 2021, our GDP expanded by 5.6 percent – higher than the official projection of 5-5.5 percent growth.

For the first time in many years, our GDP growth for 2021 is faster than China’s expansion. With our demographic advantages and fiscal headroom, this is an advantage we can hold on to in the succeeding period.

Buoyed by the latest numbers, President Duterte’s economic team reaffirmed its projection for growth of between 7 and 9 percent this year. This is a rate of expansion unseen in our economic history. It would make the Philippines a growth driver in this part of the world.

It must be pointed out that our growth numbers happened despite the Delta surge in infection middle of last year and the Omicron surge that began in the last month of the past year. As we expect the Omicron spike to quickly dissipate, as it had done in other countries, the reopening of the economy will enhance growth.

Too, election spending in the first quarter will fuel the demand boom that brought about the 7.7 percent growth in the previous quarter. Lurking underneath, however, is the peril of inflation that our monetary authorities must pay attention to. With all the pandemic-related costs tucked into our value chains, inflationary pressure will be strong.

Only our agriculture sector contracted last year. But this is entirely due to the ASF epidemic that decimated our livestock – and continues to do so. Excepting the livestock subsector, the rest of our agriculture grew by a respectable 2 percent.

The over-performance during the fourth quarter is due mainly to vibrant consumer spending. Analysts call this “revenge spending.” After months in lockdown, our consumers went out for reunions and shopping in the fourth quarter.

Evidence of a strong economic rebound is happy news that deserves to be played up in our media channels.

Immobility

Although we expect restrictions to be eased, possibly by next week, mobility is still a problem for our suffering commuters. Public transport remains a hindrance to economic participation.

A de-escalation to Alert Level 2 in the NCR could bring relief from the “no vax, no ride” policy. But it is still a problem to move overland to the provinces.

Before the pandemic, for instance, it was normal for a commuter to spend less than P500 to travel from Quezon City to San Felipe in Zambales. He simply boarded a Victory Liner bus that serviced all of northern and central Luzon. From the city terminal, the commuter traveled to his provincial destination covered by insurance while he was on the bus.

The same trip cannot be done today. Provincial bus services to the city have been suspended since the start of the pandemic.

In place of the traditional bus services, commuters have no choice but to use private vans and cars to get to their provincial destinations. These are informal modes of transport. The vans are not registered as public utilities. They issue no receipts to customers and pay no taxes to government. Should something unfortunate happen during the trip, or if the virus contaminates a vanload of people, the passengers are not covered by insurance.

The private cars and vans serving routes traditionally served by bus firms are a response to a crying need. But they are part of the underground economy: unregulated, unsecured and untaxed.

Too, these informal modes of transport cost up to three times what commuters used to spend using the provincial buses. They are paying more and traveling less safely. Count that as a pandemic-related cost.

Our transport authorities do not seem to form policies to make things more convenient for commuters. Worse, they seem bent on making things more inconvenient for people needing mobility.

First, they took their sweet time reactivating bus services since the first lockdown. When they did, they forced provincial buses to use one of the three designated terminals: the Sta. Rosa Integrated Terminal (SRIT), the Parañaque Integrated Terminal (PITX) and the North Luzon Exchange Terminal (NLET) in Bocaue, Bulacan.

It is easy to see why the DOTr did this. They did not want the provincial buses adding to the congestion of city streets. Fine, but did anyone at the DOTr try to figure out a way to make it cheaper and more convenient for commuters to get to the terminals?

For many commuters, it is more expensive to get to the terminals from the city or get back to the city from the terminals than the bus fare they pay to get to distant provinces. Sometimes, when they land at a terminal, it is impossible to get city transport. The harried passengers end up walking long distances lugging their bags. To get to the terminal, they need to hire taxis or TNVS services – that are not easy to find during the rush hours.

From what our commuters have to endure, it is surprising they have not revolted yet.