Southeast Asia: Potential center of conflict

In a very recent statement at a CNN public town hall meeting, President Biden made an extraordinary comment. When he was asked whether the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan, he said: “Yes, we have a commitment to do that.”

Geopolitical observers are still trying to dissect Biden’s statement. Taiwan has been facing pressure from China in the form of increased military flights over its air defense zone. In the past America’s stated public policy towards Taiwan has been “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese attack. American public commitment has been to support Taiwan’s self-defense efforts and not a firm commitment to automatically come to the island’s defense in case of an invasion. This is the US-Taiwan Relations act. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng also said recently that China will be capable of mounting a full-scale invasion by 2025, which is only three years away.

Taiwan’s reply is that it is an independent country and will defend its freedom and democracy.

The biggest obstacle to a Chinese takeover is the prevalence of a Taiwanese identity among its people, the rise of a distinct Taiwanese identity, the biggest political and social issue in the island. In an annual poll conducted by the National Chengchi University, Taiwanese identity has risen substantially over the years.

In 1992, 17.6 percent of respondents identified as Taiwanese only; 26.5 percent as Chinese only; 46.4 percent as both and 10.5 percent declining to state. In 2020, 64.3 percent identified as Taiwanese only; 2.6 percent as Chinese only; 29.9 percent as both and 3.2 percent declining to comment.

In 2009, a survey conducted in Taiwan showed that 82.8 percent of respondents consider China and Taiwan as two separate countries, with each developing on its own.

The rise in Taiwanese identity has been especially strong among the youth. As this generation gets older and takes over Taiwan’s affairs, one can expect that the Taiwanese identity will only get stronger. Movements like the Sunflower Movement are mainly youth-led and are the ones pushing for independence.

In past years, China’s rulers have been pushing for a one nation, two systems proposal to Taiwan. However, after what happened to Hong Kong where the Chinese government unilaterally imposed its rule on Hong Kong, this proposal has lost credibility with the Taiwanese people.

At the same time, many geopolitical experts have pointed out that China’s attempts to weaponize its economic and trade muscle has not been successful.

There has been an increasing number of critics who fear that China is using its economic influence to bully other countries.

When Australia asked for an independent inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, China imposed additional tariffs on a wide range of Australian products. This has led to the fear that China will use its trade influence to bully other countries. Australia refused to give in and, in fact, even strengthened its alliance with the United States and the UK. Recently, Australia has ordered a number of nuclear submarines from the United States which China does not possess.

There have also been a lot of complaints about the Belt and Road Initiative which was supposed to be a massive China-financed infrastructure all over the world. In some countries, there have been complaints that the BRI is actually a debt trap. Professor Audrey Wong recently wrote that many officials in different countries have complained about shoddy construction, inflated costs and environmental degradation. Many countries are seeking reciprocal access to Chinese markets while others have bowed out of the BRI completely.

The worst part is the accusation of corruption identified with these Chinese projects, including the use of “incentives.” Professor Wong wrote: “These incentives come in two forms: under the table whereby Beijing buys off political leaders through illicit deals, and by the book whereby it empowers foreign interest groups to lobby their governments for closer relations with China… As Chinese companies have increasingly invested overseas, state-owned enterprises or private companies, sometimes with the tacit approval of Chinese officials, have offered bribes and kickbacks to elites in countries receiving investment or aid projects in order to grease the wheels of the bureaucracy.”

Developing countries must find ways of shedding their reliance on rich countries like China and the United States. One possible way is through the digital revolution that is advancing in some developing countries as fast or even faster than developed countries. Indonesia, Colombia, Chile and India are examples of economies that are already more digitized than most developed countries.

In Southeast Asia, digital technology is running ahead of forecasts. Google has teamed up with Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund to report on the digital economy in Southeast Asia. The first report expected digital revenues to quadruple to $200 billion by 2025, but the last one has upped the forecast to $300 billion.

Robotic waiters, drone delivery services and digital cash industries are only at the early stages in Southeast Asia. However, soon some countries will begin to forge ahead in digital technology.

The Philippines with its wealth of expertise in IT technology has two choices. It can either become a center of digital-based industries, or it can again be the exporter of digital knowledge manpower to other countries.

From the issue of Taiwan to the rise of China to the potential of digital technology, Southeast Asia including the Philippines will be a primary geopolitical center in the decades ahead.

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