20% probability of Sara substitution

It is still almost a month before the November 15 deadline for candidate substitution and people/politicians are speculating if Sara will substitute for Bato Dela Rosa as presidential candidate for the PDP-Laban party. Most of the administration supporters are hoping she will, but some are hoping that she will not, as they have a different agenda that will be good for their own political ambitions and careers. The Marcos and Moreno camps do not see this to their advantage as it means sliding down or diminishing their candidates. Some local candidates also view this as problematic for their campaign, while some administration officials feel that it is time for the Dutertes to leave the national politics.

There are a number of factors that have to be considered by Sara and those pushing for her presidential candidacy, not necessarily in the order of importance. The satisfaction rating of Sara and the influence on her probability of winning is a big factor. Protection for President Duterte from the International Criminal Court would be another. Then Davao politics and personal ambition, and post-election (win or lose) scenario on health and lifestyle. The fast-paced developments of these factors in the next 29 days will be a major influence in the decision. If President Duterte’s satisfaction rating keeps going down, and the voices from civil society from all economic classes grows stronger, it means that the opposition from many sectors will get stronger, which will affect Sara’s poll rating and winnability. Assessing the candidates who have already seriously filed and commenced their campaigns is another factor. Robredo, Lacson, Pacquiao, Marcos, and Moreno are there and ready to stay. This roster may diminish or add to her possible votes depending on which way, but definitely unpredictable. Even the financing for the campaign will be affected by the wide field and the strength of these candidates. The state of Davao politics is also at issue as emerging power blocs will crowd into the territory if she goes for the presidency and will have dire consequences if she loses the national election. Protection for President Duterte, personal ambition, and a quieter lifestyle may be secondary factors but are still to be considered in the decision.

For the handlers/strategist of Sara, a series and multiple “decision trees” have to be made and updated as social and political developments evolve in the next 29 days. The pandemic situation and government actions, the Senate investigation into Pharmally corruption, the state of the economic recovery, and international perception of the Philippines are game changers that will cause huge swings in voter perceptions and sentiments. The surge in support for Robredo after her declaration to run for president has to be validated and analyzed. The roller-coaster movement of Moreno’s popularity, Pacquiao’s stalling evaluated. Then the Marcos rebranding/revisionism and Lacson’s lack of direction digested. It would take a dynamic “decision tree” modeling to do all these, to come up with a credible probability of winning and deciding to substitute for Dela Rosa as presidential candidate in 2022.

Even without a sophisticated decision modeling, the Sara team would be considering all these factors before the November 15 deadline. Instinctively we actually do all these calculations in our head and come up with a “gut feel”, on what is the right thing to do. Some people pray for enlightenment, some trust their instincts, and some just fire the torpedoes at full speed. Considering all of the above, there is a 20% probability that Sara will replace Dela Rosa and run for president. As to the probability of her winning the presidential race, that will be another story.