Election 2022: A herd stupidity test

In an earlier column we discussed “herd stupidity” and the danger of the herd increasing in numbers that it will disrupt social and political order and development. While there is little chance that they will be a majority, there is a possibility that they will be sizable enough to elect political leaders who will be bad for the country and even lead the country to becoming a “failed state”. There are presently some failed states where millions of their population are refugees in other countries, and millions more are desperately leaving these countries, some walking thousands of miles to cross borders. These are the situations now in some Latin American, African, and East Asian countries, as well as Afghanistan now. They have to leave for another country to survive and have a future.

A failed state status may happen in any country regardless of the kind of government. It could be an authoritarian, democratic, socialist or even a monarchy to begin with. It is about the inability of the government and consequently the country to function. It usually starts with its failure to provide public and social services, extreme economic decline, deterioration of its social and political institutions, and the inability to control and protect its territory. This, then leads to a surge in corruption and criminality, the loss of independence of the legislature, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, and the armed forces. As the government loses its legitimacy, para-military groups and warlords will gain power or the military takes over the government. Then this will be followed by the massive migration of the people to other countries. Based on the qualitative and the quantitative assessments of independent world organizations of countries all over the world we can say that Syria, Somalia, Myanmar, Chad, Yemen, Lebanon, Yugoslavia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Venezuela, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are already in this category. And many other countries are also on the verge of falling under this classification.

While the kind of government may not be the reason for the slide to a failed state, the actions of the government are the primary causes. Ethnic violence, civil wars, genocide, predatory government behavior, and bureaucratic failures happen only with government action or inaction. Control of information and disinformation, suppression of dissent, restriction of freedom and civil liberties, graft and corruption, crony capitalism, and incompetent bureaucracy are leadership and governance options.

For years before the EDSA People Power revolution that toppled the Marcos dictatorship, the Philippines was moving into the direction of a failed state. All of the conditions precedent and the deteriorations from 1980 in the social and economic conditions were all emerging. For sure, if the EDSA revolution had not happened, the Philippines would have been a failed state. In the last five years, the Philippines is again flirting with the possibility of a failed state. The sinking economy, the decline of social institutions, the inability to protect its territory, the deteriorating public services, the pliant legislature and judiciary, and the co-opted military are all visible. The increasing volume of OFWs may not be in the same dimension or category as the Latin American migration, but definitely is also a symptom.

The current political movements at this time, nine months before the election should be a source of worry for all Filipinos, as it could lead to the herd stupidity expansion. The pronouncements of some potential candidates for the coming elections in the main and social media, are actually insulting to an informed citizenry with a minimum of decency. The politicians are making a mockery of the political process and treating it as a joke. Some of the declared candidates are also jokes. I hope and pray the Filipinos will pass this “herd stupidity” test come may 2022 or we will all be in trouble.