2022 Polls - A divided administration versus a ragtag opposition?

Indeed, it is true as a political sage wrote centuries ago, those who do not learn from the bitter lessons of the past are bound to suffer from them again. History has a nasty habit of repeating itself since people never learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. The 2022 political scenario will be the exact duplicate of the presidential derby in 1992, or exactly 30 years before. A political deja vu is in the offing.

Seven candidates vied for president in 1992 and that situation favored the candidate who was endorsed by the outgoing president. If Miriam and FVR fought one-on-one, Miriam would have won hands down. The multiplicity of choices favored the administration because the antis were fragmented and Cory's forces were united behind FVR. After the term of a popular president, Cory Aquino, in 1992, the ruling coalition disintegrated and broke into the Lakas of FVR, the LDP of Mitra, the LP of Salonga, the NP of Doy Laurel and the PRP of Miriam. The feisty candidate from Iloilo was a part of the Cory government as she was appointed DAR secretary after her sterling tenure in the Bureau of Immigration. FVR was the Defense Secretary, and Ramon Mitra was really a blood brother of Ninoy both in the pre-martial law Senate and in the struggles against Marcos. Laurel was Cory's vice president. When Cory anointed FVR, Mitra defected and carried with him our excellent chief justice, Marcelo Briones Fernan to political debacle and oblivion. It was Fernan's historic mistake to have fought Cory who named him the chief magistrate of the land.

The opposition was also fragmented with Danding's NPC and Imelda's KBL. Cebu supported FVR because Lito Osmeña was his vice presidential bet. The other candidates carried their respective bailiwicks: Imelda got the solid north and Leyte solidly for her, including a large chunk of Mindanao. Panay including Iloilo, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and Guimaras together with Negros Occidental and the Ilongo-heavy vote-rich Cotabato and Metro Manila supported Miriam all the way. Danding had Central Luzon and Mitra got Palawan and Bohol, surprisingly. Where did FVR get his votes? Cebu and two thirds of Mindanao, including the northern, southern, and western side, this was where Miriam alleged that she won in the voting but lost in the counting. FVR was credited with 5.3 million votes, Miriam. 4.46 million, Danding, 4.1 million; Mitra, 3.33 million, Imelda, 2.3 million, Salonga, 2.30 million, and the poor Doy Laurel was biting the dust with a little more than 600,000 votes.

The vice presidential contest was a different story. Erap was Danding's running mate and got 6.7 million, more than double that of Cojuangco. Our dear Fernan was a distant second placer with 4.4 million, followed by Lito Osmeña (FVR's running mate) with 3.36 million. Had Fernan and Lito united, they would have beaten Erap. The other vice presidential bets were rock bottom: Ramon Magsaysay Jr. of Miriam; Nenen Pimentel of Salonga, Vic Magsaysay of Imelda. Yes, there were two Magsaysays running, these guys never learned a basic lesson in Philippine politics. Eva Kalaw, Doy Laurel's VP ended her glorious career in monumental ignominy with a little more than 200,000 votes. But the senatatorial derby was dominated by LDP winning 16 out of 24 seats, and the others were divided by Danding's NPC and FVR's Lakas with only two women winning, Rasul and Letty Shahani, FVR's sister. LDPs dominated the Senate with the winners from highest Tito Sotto, Revilla Sr., Angara, our Boy Herrera, Romulo, Maceda, Mercado, Gonzales, Alvarez, Ople, and Webb serving for six years. Those serving for three years were, among others, GMA, Roco, Tañada, and Sonny Osmeña as number 23 among the 24 winners.

Next year, this scenario will be reenacted. If VP Leni Robredo, Inday Sara, Bongbong, Manny Pacquaio, Grace Poe, Trillanes, and Bong Go will all run, that is exactly seven just like in 1992. And that will be the end of the opposition. Precisely because all of them will be divided, Mindanao will favor the candidate of Manong Digong. Even Inday will most probably give way to Bong and become Senate president instead. We will then have more of Duterte for the next six years till 2029, and perhaps we all deserve it.