Jockeying

Rising infection rates notwithstanding, politicians will have to do what they have to do: prepare their alliances and networks for electoral combat.

Those who plead disinterest in preparing for the May 2022 elections because there are so many other pressing concerns are not being fully honest. Because of the tedious ballot preparation process, the deadline for filing of candidacies is set for October next. That is just over six months from today.

In the previous presidential elections, the political parties were set up by this time in the year preceding actual elections. There was more or less some clarity on who the contenders will be and what the alliances are.

This year, the public health crisis notwithstanding, will be no different. It is simply a function of available time to muster grassroots support and achieve a certain level of name-recall. The season has begun.

The first indication that jockeying is indeed taking place, although politicians try very hard not to talk about it, is when President Duterte began addressing his closest aide Sen. Bong Go “president.” Go dismisses the gesture as presidential humoring – but then said he would run for the presidency only if the incumbent joins him as runningmate.

Almost immediately after, the PDP-Laban (Duterte’s political party of record) issued a manifesto of sorts, signed by its leading lights. The manifesto endorsed a Bong Go-Rodrigo Duterte tandem for the 2022 elections. The document does not seem to be humoring the two.

Testimony to the seriousness of this document is the adverse reaction of boxer-cum-senator Manny Pacquiao. He accused his partymates of playing politics too early. The popular Pacquiao, widely believed to be angling for the presidency next year, is apparently protesting his early exclusion.

Over the past few weeks, President Duterte has been very publicly dissuading his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, from accepting a presidential draft. Presidential politics is simply too harsh for a woman, the protective father said. But all the preference surveys conducted the past few months put Sara ahead by a mile over all the other potential presidential players. Through her own quasi-party vehicle Hugpong sa Pagbabago, Sara has quietly built strong networks of support from local officials nationwide.

After that quick Go-Duterte-PDP-Laban swirl, several anti-Duterte personalities announced they were participating in unifying the opposition. Involved in this effort are former Supreme Court Justices Antonio Carpio and Conchita Carpio-Morales along with former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario. This septuagenarian axis will make their anti-China advocacies the central plank of the anti-Duterte forces.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson, whose name appears consistently in any list of possible contenders for the presidency, recently observed that one has to be mad to want to president at this time. The country is fighting a pandemic and a recession simultaneously, our climate change effort will need to be ramped up, we are operating on a large deficit and will likely labor under heavy indebtedness the next few years.

Former House Speaker Pantaleon “Bebot” Alvarez makes things sound a bit direr. He warned: “If we make the wrong choice of president come 2022, it will not be COVID that will kill our people, it will be bad governance. We cannot have a president who will do OJT or on-the-job-training after he is elected. We need a leader who knows what must be done, and who will hit the ground running.”

Alvarez advises the electorate to closely scrutinize those offering to be the country’s next leader. That leader will lead us through a post-pandemic world, one for which few roadmaps exist and even lesser certainties evident.

There is really not much need to exhort our people to make the right choices in elections scheduled a little more than a year from now. We all appreciate the gravity of the challenges the nation faces.

The real matter of concern is whether our political parties are capable of supplying the leadership material the nation needs. The record on this is not very encouraging. Our political party system remains crude. They do not function as breeding grounds for leaders – instead as reliable boot camps for followers.

Present conditions highlight the weakness of our political parties instead of forcing them to reinvent themselves.

President Duterte’s very high trust and approval ratings make him the single most important player in defining the transition. That is an understatement. If he plays the game correctly, he will dictate the transition.

In the midterm elections, he goaded three close associates to seek seats in the Senate even if they have limited exposure to electoral politics. All three went on to win handily – almost entirely on the strength of the President’s endorsement.

The President constantly complains about how tough his job is and professes to no other plan but to return to his hometown and play with his grandchildren. But he will still be interested in solidifying his legacy by defining the transition.

It is easy for him to do that. Despite all the constant attacks mounted against his person, all the instances he seemed to lack the energy to exercise command over the turn of political circumstances, no Filipino president ever enjoyed the trust and approval of his citizens late into his presidential term.

That is the awesome political factor everyone will have to contend with. Inarticulate as he often is, he could still waylay the ambitions of those who challenge his leadership.

As politicians jockey for position on the eve of a crucial presidential vote, they will all labor under the shadow of the incumbent.