China’s authoritarian foreign policy

China recently passed a law that allows its Coast Guard to fire on any non-Chinese vessels that cross “Chinese waters.” The problem is that China considers practically the entire South China Sea as its territory. It chooses to ignore the legal claims of the Philippines, Vietnam and even Malaysia and Indonesia on other territories in the South China Sea. The Philippines has already told its fishermen to avoid fishing in certain territorial waters claimed by both countries.

After this declaration by China, the US Secretary of State Blinken told Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Locsin that it was prepared to defend the Philippines if China attacks any Filipino vessel or person in the disputed waters. This assurance was something that the US government under Trump never announced as a matter of policy. It sends a signal to the world that the Biden administration was prepared to resist further Chinese expansion.

The question is why is China suddenly appearing to be ready for a direct confrontation with the United States? Is this just to test the resolve of the new Biden administration, or is this simply an extension of its policy of expanding its global power?

The idea of testing America’s resolve has been talked about in the midst of an increasingly confident China and its belief that US power is in decline. Many prominent Chinese have stated that the basis for future US-China relationship is framed by the inevitable decline of American power and increasing hostility to China. Yuan Peng, the president of the Ministry of State Security’s China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, recently wrote: “Even if Biden wins, America will have a hard time reassuming its role as a world leader…and America’s China policy will only get increasingly hyper sensitive, unyielding and arrogant as they double down on containment and suppression.”

Julian Gewirtz, a China expert at Columbia and Harvard, writes: “As one (Chinese) state media outlet declared pointedly in late July, ‘No country and no individual can stop the historic pace of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.’…China’s conviction that the United States is diminishing has emboldened its leaders to pursue long-standing objectives with new vigor. Their view of US decline makes them see fewer risks in taking highly aggressive positions, and their sense of US hostility, among other factors, increases their willingness to incur international opprobrium: imposing a new security law on Hong Kong; committing atrocities in Xinjiang; bullying Australia, India and the Philippines; threatening Taiwan; forging new partnerships with Iran and Russia; and letting Chinese diplomats spread conspiracy theories of COVID-19. With the United States withdrawing from multilateralism and international institutions, China has tried to reshape global bodies, such as the UN Human Rights Council, in its favor. China’s behavior in these areas is often at odds with the US interests and rules-based order, with Beijing flouting rules it dislikes and undermining liberal norms and values.”

The new Biden administration, however, has announced that it is returning to multilateralism, which means strengthening alliances rather than going it alone. It has reached out to its NATO allies and vows to reenergize the QUAD – United States, Japan, Australia, India – in the Asia Pacific region. President Biden has also announced that it is calling for a summit meeting of all democracies sometime this year.

There are several obstacles to China’s push to assert itself as a dominant world power. It is clear that China has been painting itself as a model for development using authoritarian methods. For example, during the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, it pointed to its authoritarianism as the cause of their ability to mobilize resources and gather data faster than other countries with democratic governments. Lockdowns and the enforcement of rules like wearing masks were considered as the most efficient in a totalitarian China.

Rana Mitter, professor of Chinese history at Oxford University, however, wrote: “But whatever its potential benefits, Chinese authoritarianism will not easily win hearts and minds around the world. As Belt and Road Initiative programs spread, so, too, will concerns about Chinese economic and political influence. In nondemocratic client states such as Cambodia, China may meet less pushback, but resistance is more likely in countries such as Kenya and Zambia, where parliaments and the media can debate Chinese involvement and where attitudes toward China and its system are mixed or even overtly hostile.”

China has also shown that it responds harshly to any criticism. For example, when Australia proposed that there should be an international inquiry into the origins of the virus, instead of cooperating, it immediately boycotted barley sales from Australia. When the British government originally hinted that it may reverse its decision not to allow Huawei, the Chinese 5G manufacturer, into the United Kingdom’s 5G network, Chinese diplomats threatened “consequences.” This was a signal that a major investment from China was not simply a commercial transaction but also a political one. The result was a British ban.

Authoritarianism is the key to the maintenance of power by the Chinese Communist Party. At the start of this century there were hopes of liberal reforms under Deng Xiaoping. However, under Xi Jinping, there is an apparent reinforcement of authoritarianism as he fully intends to stay in power permanently, unlike previous presidents who adhered to the maximum ten-year term.

China’s foreign policy will continue to mirror its domestic policy of authoritarianism which, combined with its belief that American power is declining, is the biggest threat to peace in this world.

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