COVID pandemic a necessary pause?

If we start with the from the discovery of the virus in Wuhan, China, last December, the COVID pandemic has been with the world for 12 months. If we start from the onset of the varying stages and levels of quarantines and lockdowns worldwide, we are now on the tenth month of an extremely slowed world activity that has killed millions of people, shrunk all the world economies, and impoverished tens of millions of people. The vaccines for the virus are about to be rolled out this month, and by the middle of 2021 up to the end of 2022, maybe some 70% of the global population will have been vaccinated for herd immunity to take hold. By then, people mobility will recover and economic activities will be at the pre-pandemic levels. While human activities did not and will not totally stop in this two-year period, it has/will significantly slow down, that it seems the world had “paused” for two years.

The economic slowdown as measured by the growth or decline of the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of the countries and the world in 2020 and 2021, has to be the deepest and the most pervasive in the last 100 years. Even with the economic recovery of some countries, the consolidated decline of the global economy for the two-year period would be in the 9%, as some countries’ economies decreased by double digits in 2020 and creep to recovery in 2021. And this has affected all sectors of their economies, with travel/tourism hardest hit, manufacturing/construction and other services following the decline.

A most important effect of the economic slowdown is the accelerated evaluation of the economic model of “GDP growth” as a measure of the well-being of the country’s economy and its people. That as long as GDP is growing, which means a bigger economic pie to be shared by the people, the poverty levels will shrink and most people will have their lives improve. After years of world economic growth, it appears this does not happen all the time. The rich are getting richer and the uplift of the poor has been slow and sporadic. The middle class is not growing as fast as desired, and the economic divide is still wanting. Because of the pandemic, governments and business have expanded their stakeholders beyond their shareholders to include the workers, their customers, and the environment. Improved and better distribution of benefits to all stakeholders was practiced during the pandemic and will continue in the years to come. We can expect a more sharing economy, where beyond GDP growth, the sharing of the wealth and safety nets for those at the bottom economic structure are in place. There is now a GNI coefficient which is a measure of the GDP distribution of the country’s economy.

The political impact of this pandemic is equally significant. Containing the health and economic problems made government and government leaders deliver on their promises to their people. It is hard work for the elected and appointed officials and a strain on their government’s financial and physical resources. Political accountability, especially of populist politicians who promised all during the campaign are now reckoned with their re-election and reputation at stake.

The ecological and social impact of this pandemic cannot be overstated. The world environment/ecology has improved so much with the lesser destruction of natural resources and given time to resuscitate or recover from overexploitation. The skies, seas, rivers, and forests are cleaner, clearer, and better. On the social side, I really believe this pandemic has made people appreciate their families and friends better and truer, and made all of us realize the important things that really matter. God must have made this pandemic as a “necessary pause.”