What seems to have worked so far?

China waiting to see who'll be next US president.

As if the coronavirus pandemic is not enough to worry the world silly, there is also growing talk in online commentaries about a looming World War III, with the likely trigger being the South China Sea and the competing claims and issues therein. And if one were to simply look at the rising volume of rhetoric from either side of the Pacific, it certainly looks like only a prayer is holding back the US and China from going at it and start shooting.

But pretty scary as the rhetoric might be, no conflict of major consequence really ever starts from a mere exchange of words, no matter how heated. Countries are not like individuals who can come to blows over an argument. Relations between nations are far more complicated such that it is not so easy to wage war, even among traditional adversarial states.

That said, it might also be worthy to note that other than the decibels, there is also the little-acknowledged fact that China, more than anybody else, seems to have understood perfectly the sense of the conflict at this point in time. China has correctly guessed the direct correlation between the new displays of American muscle and the US presidential election this November.

Just weeks ago, China conducted naval exercises in the South China Sea. Into that arena, the US sent two of its carrier strike forces with another one hovering just further east across the Pacific. If the two nations really wanted to go to war, that would have been the time to invent a pretext to pull the trigger.

But their mighty forces never crossed despite the fact that never before had they been in such unprecedented proximity in such huge numbers in such a small corner of the Pacific. It was as if they were engaged in some delicately choreographed dance, some perfectly executed silent drill. And I would not be surprised if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were not fully, but secretly, in on it, you know, just a charade to feed the dogs at home.

Trump is politically embattled in his reelection bid and could use a strong push at bravado, even if illusory. Xi, on the other hand, has troubles within his party. Both are leaders who perfectly understand what leadership is all about and what it entails to project it. You know, the aura of anything is often just enough without having to actually prove it. A muscled man is presumed able to lift heavier weights without having to raise a cup.

At this time the rhetoric is enough. Add some theatrics and the foreign policies of both men are secure as far as the South China Sea issue is concerned. There is no need to go to war right now. There will be another day and other provocations for that. Both Trump and Xi are treading on very delicate domestic issues too advanced to be remedied by a foreign policy rescue.

For both leaders, it is better to kick the can down the road. Trump cannot go to war with the pandemic monkey on his back. Better win a fresh term first then use the next four years recharging and rethinking. Xi cannot wage war with a desperate man backed into a corner like Trump. Better to wait till November and hope Joe Biden wins. Biden is softer than Barack Obama, who merely looked away when China grabbed the South China Sea.