Science or guesswork?

The perfection of science in a laboratory becomes meaningless when confronted by the will of a mob! That is what many people learned last week when 6,000 hungry and desperate LSIs or “locally stranded individuals” swarmed into the Rizal Memorial Sports Complex in Manila in the hopes of being first in line or getting a seat on any bus, plane or boat out of Metro Manila. Fortunately for us, they are all simply fed up with being stranded and not desperately fleeing for their lives. That very event of course caused quite a stir on social media where Netizens were upset that all 6,000 LSIs were crammed together, no social distancing and clearly all at risk of getting COVID-19. As it turned out from an initial nine cases, the number has doubled over the weekend, but that may be much higher since the LSIs are tested through the rapid test kits that have a higher false outcomes than the molecular RT-PCR, or antigen tests that take much longer but is the so-called gold standard.

I had the chance to interview Assistant Secretary Joseph Encabo who explained that once word got out that the government had launched the Hatid Tulong Program as per instruction of President Duterte, various barangays, cities, NGOs and groups began reaching out to them and endorsing locally stranded individuals for registration. Many LSIs are parents who came to Manila before the lockdown for school graduations, school registration, students, OFWs scheduled to travel abroad for employment, construction and office workers of now defunct or shuttered companies as well as persons undergoing trainings, OJTs as well as domestic helpers who simply want out of Metro Manila, or whose employers are also unemployed.

The plan was continued registration of LSIs, rapid testing and medical evaluation, coordination of travel and logistics as well as endorsement to receiving destinations such as provinces, towns or cities. According to Asec. Encabo everything was working well up to the pre-registration process. From there, the processed LSIs would receive a text message or would be informed by the barangay officials in their location when their scheduled departure or travel will be. What went wrong was when the processed LSIs started texting their amigas and “friendships” on Facebook that it was now possible to travel for free and all you have to do is go to the Rizal Memorial Sports Complex! That is all the motivation a person needs and that’s why Encabo and his team ended up with 6,000 instead of 600 to a thousand overnight. To make matters worse, it was the week when we had a series of late afternoon thunderstorms that created a “damned if you do – damned if you don’t” situation for the organizers. Once they opened the gates there was no stopping “The Charge of the Light Brigade!”

There is no point in beating the PMS or Hatid Tulong program because they are so traumatized that any further punches won’t be felt. Besides which like I said, what happened was “mob rule” that defied science, it even defied COVID-19. The only thing the people had in mind was to get out of the rain, get on a bus, train, plane or a boat and get the hell out of Metro Manila. BUT, I cannot help but ask how did 6,000 people manage to converge on Rizal Memorial without the police, the SAF, or the AFP quickly responding to slow or block the sea of humanity? Six thousand people many of whom were women and children walked or travelled unimpeded or questioned at various checkpoints. They could have taken a wrong turn and ended up on Mendiola Bridge or the gates of Malacañang for that matter! I wish they had and then everyone would have realized that everybody talks but no one’s in-charge.

Aside from the unrestricted and uncontrolled convergence in Rizal Memorial Sports Complex, I realized while talking to Asec. Encabo on our TV show AGENDA, that our only real problem is the unwillingness of “scientists daw”and “medical experts daw,” in the IATF to allow the operation of commercial buses, trains, planes and ferry boats so that LSIs and people who want to go back to their provinces can leave even at their own expense. I already have an earache from all the claims and arguments and positions of the so-called experts about quarantine and contamination, but all that science failed in the face of 6,000 LSIs and officials are now playing deaf, dumb or blind! It seems that the only people who are not listening to their argument are the experts at the IATF.

The current system of screening of LSIs relies on “rapid testing” which the very same “experts” had cast doubts upon because of the high false readings. Aside from rapid testing, the system requires 14 days quarantine from point of origin and another 14 days at destination, where they are either given arrival honors through rapid test or RT-PCR. We all presume that 14 days out and 14 days in insures you are COVID-free. But as it turns out, SO FAR, even those who survive COVID-19 are not necessarily COVID-free. One high-ranking physician in a private hospital confirmed a repeat case of COVID-19 involving a doctor, which tells us that immunity and anti-bodies is a fantasy. Yesterday, Senator Migs Zubiri who has recovered from the virus still tested positive just before the SONA.  In short, all the stuff the experts are holding on to is either guesswork, guesstimate and best guess scenarios! Meanwhile we are all falling over each other dealing with LSIs when the best and practical solution is to simply enforce the testing and quarantine protocols and activate public transport. That’s all we can do and that’s the best we can do!

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