Stories from data

Data about the total number of COVID cases, how many have recovered, how many have died, and where, are reported daily. All of us, of course, are praying the number of cases will decrease, the number of recoveries will increase and no more fatalities please, Lord.

Data can be interpreted and presented in various ways.

Radio reports focus on numbers, with reporters and commentators intent on making the listeners understand what the numbers are about. Other types of media have more options for data presentation. Maps, graphs, colors can be used to tell many stories from similar data.

For example, using the same daily information from DOH, the Research and Creative Work team of the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute shared a refreshing representation of COVID data of different Philippine cities. By choosing bright pink bars to show recovery data, the public easily recognizes that it is better for the city if the chart has more pink areas than blue (representing active cases) or turquoise (representing deaths). With less blue and less turquoise, one can say that “the city is back to the pink of health!” (see https://endcov.ph/cityvsCOVID/)

Cebu City’s chart still has more blue than pink but the hopeful note is that the turquoise shaded area is also slim, a tribute to our medical frontliners who are doing their best to save lives!

Dr. Joel Bandibas, who studied Earth Science (GeoInformatics) at the University of Gent and who now works at the Geological Survey of Japan and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, personally created an app (see https://jcb-spatial.com/phlCOVID19/) where he provides colorful maps and other COVID-related information. His app is 100% mobile device compliant. Its database is updated daily.

Born in Cebu City, Dr. Joel is very open to help and volunteer for data tracking and developing a PC/mobile mapping app for Cebu Province. He is waiting for barangay level data of COVID-19 cases and data on the location of health and quarantine facilities.

Analyzing historical data of total deaths in Cebu City, Dr. Glen Green of the University of San Carlos noted there were four deaths reported by March 31, then seven deaths by April 30. By May 15, there were 14 deaths, and 39 deaths by June 15. The number rose to 169 by June 30, then to 389 by July 15!

Dr. Green shared that “this growth in deaths displays more or less exponential growth with a doubling time of every 2 weeks. The lockdown (ECQ) prevents a faster doubling (uncontrolled exponential growth is perhaps doubling every 3-5 days).”

However, “lack of testing and tracing early on and Cebu's bad conditions for spread in its poorest communities because of their packed and unsanitary built environment means the virus will continue to spread exponentially, eventually passing the point testing and tracing is even possible (perhaps we are at that point now), and eventually infecting most everyone who lives in the city.”

“Drop-off in immunity three months after recovery means the disease will become endemic in Cebu and continue to circulate, because herd immunity will never be reached, therefore COVID-19 will continue reinfecting everyone periodically until a vaccine is available perhaps soonest in a year if ever.”

Dr. Green warns: “The number of infected will be 20 to 100 times the number of deaths, and there is a one month delay from infected to death. The real infected are 389X20X2=15,000 who have to be traced immediately in 2 weeks (and isolated) or there will be 30,000 infected which may be impossible (to find) with 50 tracers.”

Data can show grim realities but can also guide all to respond quickly, appropriately, race versus time, and save lives.