More medicine not quarantine

Metro Manila Mayors and the IATF as well as their medical consultants have been busy deliberating over what to do after May 15. Do they go for a continuation of ECQ in Metro Manila, do they do a combination of ECQ and GCQ, and how do they go about it all. There is no good solution in any of the options because we will have to give up something or another, make sacrifices one way or another. The question really is, what are we trying to accomplish?

When we started our war against the Covid-19 virus the principal goal was to stop the transmission or spread of the virus among communities. To do that the national government declared numerous types of quarantine up to the ECQ model we are now under. It is undoubtedly a success in terms of implementation and public cooperation. As a result, our number of deaths and transmissions turned out much lower than the dreaded expectation. No point in comparing our numbers with other countries because that act by itself is nothing more than a platform to justify criticism or judgment on the government’s handling of a situation never before seen by the entire world.  So in essence, we achieved goal #1.

The next goal was to help hospitals and front liners to prepare and cope with the expected overwhelming surge of cases that could prevent the treatment and management of Covid-19 cases. Like anywhere else in the world, we had an initial trauma among front liners several of whom contracted the disease due to lack of PPEs, appropriate ICU and ER equipment as well as unknown factors about the disease prevention and management. But through it all, everyone, every Filipino helped. So all we somehow managed to buy, source, solicit donate or produce PPEs, masks etc. The government alongside private corporations quickly put up alternative quarantine facilities, the DOH realized the need to dedicate special “Covid-19 hospitals only”. As a result we managed to buy the doctors and hospitals enough time and equipment to focus and understand what they could about the virus, who were at risk, the complexity and counter intuitive nature of treating Covid-19 and as a result we slowly but clearly began to see the number of recoveries go up, the number of deaths go down, and patients who were suppose to be written off actually making miraculous recoveries such as infants and people in their 90’s. Yes, goal #2 done.

What’s not being talked about much in the Philippines is the fact that many doctors, in their desire to save lives tried options and medications that were reportedly producing positive results. Unlike the first month, the medical and pharmaceutical communities have opened up about those experiments, trial and errors, as well useful medicines and methods of treatment for Covid-19. Call it a gray area if you wish but I believe that this is where we should take our stand or arm ourselves as the next step. This has to be Goal #3.

Whether we like it or not, sooner or later, the government and the Mayors of Metro Manila will have to go the same path as their counterparts have gone in other countries. We can test all we can, quarantine all we can, but until we have a real vaccine inside Philippine hospitals (approximately 2 to 5 years from now) the fact remains that two things will happen. We will acquire “Herd Immunity” where a large part of the population will develop the resistance or anti-bodies and there will be continuing infections among Filipinos. There will surely be a “Second Wave” but it does not necessarily mean the “Second Wave” will automatically be bigger or deadlier than the first wave. We can make it a smaller and more manageable tiny wave. We now know more and are better set-up.  We cannot avoid that because the virus is still out there. What we need to make sure is that when we release the general population, people on the ground are quick to recognize, report and contain every single incident suspicious or otherwise, and that we have a full menu of medicines and treatment protocols to manage the cases and prevent a disastrous surge. We cannot logically continue to quarantine Luzon or Metro Manila and therefore what we need is “More Medicine Not Quarantine.”

I honestly feel that we are overly dependent on the statistical and mathematical models being presented as basis for strategy and policy in dealing with Covid-19 and how to protect the population. But what about immediately setting up a national intelligence gathering group to gather any and all data about each and every medicine that has been, was used or currently in use in managing Covid-19 cases all over the world. There is already tons of research material and discussions about all sorts of medicines beginning from Hydroxychloroquine, Interferon alpha, Remdesivir, Azithromycin, Immuno suppressant drugs to stop the auto immune response of patients that lead to Covid-19 related complications. All this information is the only and most powerful weapon we can use to attack the enemy directly. Quarantine is all about prevention and avoidance. What we need is information and medication that will help patients survive the attack and eventually have the anti-bodies. Being all too young to experience it, we forget the 1918 “Spanish” Flu pandemic. They did not have any of the modern medicines and technology we now take for granted. They did what they could with what they had and eventually developed Herd Immunity. We have enough to limit the mortalities and we do that with more medicines not quarantine.

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