WHO’s 3 T’s vs COVID-19

It is welcome news if indeed there seems to be a tapering off in the incidence of infection cases from the 2019 coronavirus disease, or COVID-19 here in our country. Based on the latest analytics done by government medical and epidemiology experts, there could be already an onset of the so-called “flattening of the curve” in the monitoring of COVID-19 cases all over the Philippines.

But the bad news is, the COVID infection cases in our country has breached the 10,000 mark last Wednesday. As of yesterday, the number of COVID-positive reached 10,343, according to the latest tally of Department of Health (DOH). Unfortunately, 27 more COVID-infection patients died, raising the death toll to 685 while recovered patients increased to 1,618.

Nonetheless, there is a good sign coming from the analytics of the COVID-19 cases in the Philippines as reported to the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging and Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID). From the latest official tally of COVID-19 cases, IATF Data Analytics Expert Group member Dr. John Wong noted the country now “starts to see flattening,” especially in national capital region (NCR) where 70% of COVID-19 patients came from.

Wong explained the “doubling time” of what’s happening in NCR every one to two days during the period before the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) took effect last March 1. Lately, the “doubling time” for cases is every four days. As for the mortality, the baseline “doubling time” before was four days but it is now up to 5.7 days.

Case “doubling time” pertains to the duration of days for the number of COVID-19 positive cases, or deaths to double. 

 However, COVID-19 may still remain as a public health crisis for at least 18 months to two years unless a vaccine for this deadly flu-like disease is not discovered sooner than later, National Task Force against COVID-19 response chief implementer Secretary Carlito Galvez, Jr. admitted. Actually, Galvez merely echoed President Rodrigo Duterte who first made this warning and even offered reward money to any Filipino to discover anti-COVID vaccine.

Upon being informed about the analytics report, DOH Secretary Dr. Francisco Duque III, who chairs the IATF, cited this development would be matched by the government in “ramping up” the government measures to push the “flattening of the curve” of the COVID-19 pandemic here in our country.

The phrases “flattening of the curve” and “ramping up” have become the buzzwords of many of our government officials in the forefront of the national anti-COVID campaign. Unfortunately, they are just words, catch phrases that have not helped eased the plight of the Filipinos reeling from the impact of the stringent COVID-19 lockdowns.

For almost two months now, the poorest of the poor suffer most of the brunt of the resulting economic difficulties from the ECQ. Forced to stay at home, rendered jobless and no income, all they could count on is the promised emergency cash subsidy from the so-called Social Amelioration Program (SAP) under the Bayanihan Heal As One Act. Approved into law by President Duterte, SAP cash subsidy is being given out to 18 million Filipinos from the disadvantaged sectors. The SAP amounts range from P5,000 to P8,000 per household for two months, April and May.

Financial and relief goods were supposed to be matched by the local government units (LGUs) that were tasked to distribute the SAP to their respective constituents. The IATF extended anew the deadline to May 10 for the LGUs to distribute SAP. The original deadline for the first tranche lapsed yesterday but still many supposed beneficiaries especially in the NCR have not received a single centavo.

Minimum wage earners were also supposed to get some form of cash subsidy from their employers and the government. Petty cash dole outs were given out in trickles to drivers of public utility transports from buses, jeepneys, and tricycles.

Establishments belonging to the category of medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) are the biggest losers of the COVID lockdown. The government came up with bailout for the MSMEs but still it is not enough to recover their losses. The bigger establishments and giant businesses were as badly hit by the COVID lockdowns.

What is needed is to restart their business operations under modified lockdown guidelines drawn up by the IATF for those areas classified as general community quarantine (GCQ). The IATF has approved the “minimum health standards” that malls, companies and other business establishments catering to “essential goods and services” would comply once re-opened to the public in GCQ areas.

According to presidential spokesman Harry Roque, the same “minimum health standards” will be enforced once “flattening of the curve” of COVID-19 cases is sustained in areas still under ECQ. The NCR is among the areas classified as “high-risk” to the spread of COVID-19 contagion that prompted President Duterte to extend the month-long ECQ for another two weeks ending this May 15.

Undoubtedly the Luzon-wide ECQ could be credited to some degree in the slowing down the spread of the COVID-19 infection. It enabled government authorities to buy time to put up and improve our health care system to cope with COVID-19 contagion. 

“At present, because of the lack of the vaccine, like what our President said, the COVID situation might stay until, maybe, until 18 months or even two years. That is why, we are preparing for the minimum health standard, the new normal,” Galvez admitted.          

The World Health Organization (WHO) has frowned on lockdowns as counter-productive. Instead, the WHO constantly reminded government authorities in the more than 200 countries and territories plagued by the COVID contagion to “test, test, test” the people against COVID infection.

True enough, the lockdowns created other more problems for us here. Our country’s economic growth shrunk to its lowest at 0.2% in the first three months this year when the ECQ first started. The Philippine response is to embark on its own 3 T’s, test, trace and treat. As how 3 T’s slowly come in will be my subject on Monday.