Ouster plots

While President Rodrigo Duterte could not care less and always shrugs off coup plots to allegedly unseat him from Malacañang, respective leaderships in the Senate and at the House of Representatives, on the other hand, are fending off ouster rumors. The latest coup plot allegedly was being hatched as a result of the unilateral decision of President Duterte to abruptly abrogate the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States.

As the treaty-ratifying body, Senators headed by Senate president Vicente Sotto III, argued that the presidential action of sending an official notice of the VFA abrogation to the US government also requires ratification by the Upper Chamber. To which Malacañang, through presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo, rebutted it ain’t so.    

Nonetheless, Sotto along with like-minded members from the ruling pro-administration majority approved Senate Resolution 312 on Feb. 10. They all asked President Duterte to reconsider his plan to withdraw the Philippines from the VFA pact “in the meantime that the Senate is conducting a thorough review of the same.” 

 But on the next session day, six Senators who are all known allies of President Duterte changed their minds from supporting Senate Resolution 312 and manifested in plenary that they were changing their “yes” votes to abstention. The six were Senators Christopher “Bong” Go, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, Francis Tolentino, Imee Marcos, Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., and Cynthia Villar. 

Senators led by Sotto are set to question the constitutional and legal differences of opinion over the matter before the Supreme Court (SC). It was at this point when rumors and talks about Sotto’s leadership at the Senate being put at stake and Sotto is in danger of losing it.

It would do well to know where Sotto is coming from in his stand on the VFA issue. Sotto voted to ratify the VFA in May 1999 during his first stint as a Senator. While he was Vice Mayor of Quezon City, Sotto joined the late president Corazon Aquino and then Olongapo City Mayor and now fellow Senator Richard Gordon who led the pro-US bases rally in Luneta. This was to dramatize their appeal to the Senate at that time to ratify the proposed renewal in 1991 of the Philippine-US military bases agreement.   

Now on his second and last term as Senator, Sotto was first elected as Senate president during the 17th Congress under the so-called “term-sharing agreement” with Sen. Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III. Until June last year, Pimentel – who heads the ruling administration PDP-Laban party – served the first one and a half years as Senate president. Sotto was re-elected Senate president when the 18th Congress opened in July 2019.

At the Lower House, Davao del Norte Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez who also belongs to the ruling PDP-Laban, completed the hold of President Duterte over the 17th Congress. With President Duterte – as the titular chieftain of the PDP-Laban – at Malacañang, Pimentel and Alvarez formed the triumvirate of power in our country.

That was until July 2018 when the fateful coup d’etat unceremoniously toppled Alvarez as the sitting House Speaker on the day President Duterte was to deliver his third state of the nation address (SONA). As it later turned out, presidential daughter Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte pulled the rug under Alvarez’ feet and succeeded to install former president and then Pampanga Congresswoman Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as new Speaker. 

While Sotto faces the VFA woes, the leadership of House Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano is feeling threatened by supporting President Duterte’s stand that saw the protracted deliberations of the ABS-CBN franchise renewal. As the constitutional body where franchise renewal must originate, some House legislators questioned Cayetano’s leadership of the Chamber for its failure up to now to act on the renewal of franchise of TV network ABS-CBN. Cayetano maintains the Lower House should not give in to pressure to approve the 25-year franchise extension of the Lopez-owned ABS-CBN network. 

This we are seeing now with the ongoing word war over another “term-sharing agreement” between Cayetano as the sitting Speaker and speaker-in-waiting Marinduque Rep. Lord Allan Velasco. Just seven months before their supposed “term-sharing agreement” takes effect this October, Cayetano suspected Velasco as behind maneuvers to cut short his leadership. The Taguig City Congressman revealed Velasco’s alleged behind-the-back efforts to make him unpopular among his key allies in Congress and offering House committee chairmanships this early when the latter has not even assumed yet as Speaker. 

Cayetano is no neophyte in politics. He first served in his congressional district for three consecutive terms before he run and got elected as Senator for two consecutive terms. He run but lost as vice presidential runningmate of Mayor Duterte in the last May 2016 elections. Blame it to paranoia perhaps of Cayetano. He sees and believes too much conspiracy theories. But such overtures at this stage could not possibly be construed as trying to unseat him as Speaker. His designated successor is apparently preparing already for this eventual take over soon as the new leader of the House. 

As expected, Malacañang washes its hands off from this renewed jockeying at the House leadership, citing the fact there is a “gentlemen’s agreement” between the two Duterte allies. Mouthing the official Palace line, Panelo declared he sees no reason why Cayetano or Velasco would not comply with their own “term-sharing agreement.” 

  The matter, after all, will have to be validated by the entire body of the House of Representatives with 302 members who elect their own leaders.

The PDP-Laban had around 125 House members at the start of President Duterte’s term. This number at present is now down to just 62 district lawmakers. A good chunk of those recently left the ruling party and have joined the National Unity Party (NUP) and the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD) party. 

Before former Davao City Mayor ran and won the May 2016 presidential election, their PDP-Laban party only had three members. Typical of many politicians, the PDP-Laban ranks grew nationwide of defectors from other political parties following Mayor Duterte’s rise to power. Now on the last three years of his term, Mayor Duterte’s allies in the 18th Congress have started to re-align to their potential patrons in the run up to the next presidential elections in May 2022. 

At this stage, it’s not too early to see such re-alignment of forces among our politicians. Our Philippine history is replete with so many ouster plots, most of which succeeded against many of our great leaders. Only time can tell when and who is next one on the line.