Impeachment

There are few days packed with stuff of great moment like last Tuesday. 

Within a matter of hours, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was repudiated by that country’s Supreme Court and, on the other side of the pond, the US House of Representatives announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. A new layer of political uncertainty has settled over the many others that are already there.

Boris Johnson, in the brief period he has occupied the post, lost every vote on every issue at the Parliament. Now he has lost, by unanimous decision, a vote at the UK Supreme Court over the constitutionality of his suspension of that chamber’s sessions for about half a month just as the country is careening toward the end-October deadline to exit the European Union (EU). 

In normal times, populated by normal persons, the British prime minister should have resigned after such a rebuke. But we are not in normal times and Johnson is not your typical prime minister.

By convincing the Queen to sign on to his proposal to suspend sessions in Parliament, Johnson had hoped he could sufficiently lock out that noisy chamber while he pulled the country out of the EU with or (most likely) without a deal. His only mandate, in his mind, is to take the UK out of the EU come hell or high water. He is determined, no doubt, to accomplish that regardless of the costs – including costs to the British constitutional order.

Members of Parliament turned to the UK Supreme Court to test the constitutionality of Johnson’s forceful move. The Court found the suspension (“proroguing” in British political jargon) unconstitutional. The Speaker of the Parliament immediately called for the assembly to convene the day after the Court rendered its judgment.

 If the sessions of Parliament were distinctly more raucous the past few weeks, expect them to become more so in the coming period. Johnson is committed to exit the EU even if no deal is forged to ease the transition. Parliament thinks a deal is a prerequisite. Without it, exit ought to be postponed.

These are irreconcilable positions. Expect dramatic confrontation the next few days as the deadline looms.

It is bad enough that that UK will exit without a deal. It is worse the dreaded exit will be led by a prime minister who, for all intents and purposes, is politically dead.

Sit tight for chaos ahead.

Ukraine

Donald Trump has always been brazen and corrupt in his handling of power. In him, we see a readiness to sacrifice the national interest in pursuit of personal aggrandizement. 

But in the case of his phone call to the new Ukrainian president, Trump very clearly crossed the line. By a mile.

A whistleblower in the US intelligence community called attention to the controversial phone call. His superiors saw enough merit to endorse the complaint. Then the White House tried to suppress release of this particular complaint.

In the said phone conversation, Trump pressed his counterpart about investigating the son of former Vice-President Joe Biden – now the Democratic frontrunner for the party’s presidential nomination. The younger Biden once served on the board of a Ukrainian corporation. Trump, even if there is not a shred of evidence to support it, continues to claim that the younger Biden is guilty of corruption.

Weeks before the phone call, Trump (for no clear reason) ordered the suspension of military aid to Ukraine. US policy supports Ukraine against what is perceived as Russian aggression. In the course of the phone call, Trump mentioned the Biden case eight times. It was clear he wanted his Ukrainian counterpart to dig dirt on the son of a political rival. The urgently needed military aid was, after all, being held hostage to Trump’s whim.

The White House announced it would soon release the full transcript of the controversial phone call. The yet unidentified whistleblower is reported to be ready to appear before the US Congress, even as the legislature has been denied access to the actual complaint. 

Even ahead of that release, some things are clear. Trump subordinated US policy to this personal political agenda. Once again, Trump has invited a foreign government to intervene in US elections. 

For members of the US Congress, an impeachment inquiry at this time is no longer a mere political option. It is a constitutional duty.

Chaos duo

It is the whole world’s misfortune that, at this time of weakness in the global economy, we have Donald Trump at the White House and Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street. Although the two may be polar opposites in their views about free trade, they are similar in the recklessness with which they have exercised power.

Global economic weakness is aggravated by the trade war Trump initiated and by the horrible scenarios surrounding Britain’s exit from the Eurozone. Very few analysts say things will get better. More are saying things will be wilder. 

Observing the latest trends, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) further reduced the growth outlook for Asia’s economies. The region is expected to grow at a lower rate of about 5.5%.

While recognizing the resilience of the Philippine economy, the ADB nevertheless cut our growth forecast for 2019 to just 6% from the earlier forecast of 6.4%. For 2020 Philippine growth, the ADB cut its forecast to 6.2% from 6.4%.

Even with that lower growth forecast, the Philippines will remain a growth leader in the region and the world – unless Trump and Johnson wreak more havoc.