US-China rivalry: ASEAN unity needed

At the close of the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit hosted by Singapore, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that while it is desirable for one not to take sides, “circumstances may come when ASEAN may have to choose one or the other,” referencing the rivalry that is happening between the United States and China. 

“If you are friends with two countries which are on different sides, sometimes it is possible to get along with both; sometimes it’s more awkward when you try to get along with both,” he continued, reflecting the unease edging its way across nations at the prospect of being caught between a rock and a hard place as these two giants escalate their bid for security and economic hegemony in the region.

As noted by the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, “ASEAN has emerged as a central player on the global stage,” with its huge population of 630 million people plus a combined GDP of $2.5 trillion.  

ASEAN is China’s largest trading partner and the fourth largest trading partner of the United States as well as the largest destination for US foreign direct investment in Asia. The 10-nation regional group is at the center of a dynamic region whose combined growth rate is projected at over five percent a year, which could make it the world’s fourth largest economy by 2050. 

In Washington, D.C., my ASEAN colleagues and I meet regularly to discuss common issues, and more often than not, we speak as one, giving us a stronger voice to elevate the regional bloc’s concerns to key US government officials, legislators, the business sector and other groups and organizations.

No doubt, more than ever, the ASEAN community must act as one and help temper the brewing tension. The best way to navigate the current situation is for all member nations of ASEAN to leverage their collective strength and remain solid as one community. Certainly, no one wants to be caught between two superpowers like the US and China if these two head for a collision course – a situation all of us should pray would never happen. 

The Trump Administration has been ramping up its military spending, emerging with the biggest budget for 2017 at $610 billion according to a report by Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Of the world’s total military expenditure of $1.73 trillion last year, the US accounted for 35 percent. Close on the heels of the US is China that emerged as number two with an estimated $228 billion for 2017 – although official figures only total $151.4 billion. According to SIPRI, China’s military expenditure had increased by 13 percent since 2008.  

For 2018, the US Congress increased the military budget to 18 percent at $696 billion. For 2019, the projected amount is $716 billion, with tanks, fighter jets, guided missile destroyers, Virginia Class submarines, a littoral combat ship and hypersonic weapons all on the US defense plate.

China on the other hand has been massively overhauling its army since 2017 “to create a more mobile, modular, lethal ground force capable of being the core of joint operations” and has announced that it will spend $175 billion on its military for 2018, but the number may actually be much higher. 

The trade war between the US and China is increasingly heating up, causing anxiety among global companies especially in the manufacturing sector (such as textiles and electronics) as it could affect the supply chain. However, consulting firms such as Bain & Co. say that ASEAN could emerge as a winner because the region offers an alternative supply chain base for companies that are looking to diversify away from China.

According to Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernie Pernia, a trade war between the US and China could prove to be beneficial to the Philippines in terms of millions of dollars in electronic goods exported to the US, which would alleviate the potential loss of imports from China. For the short term, the trade war could have a positive net effect on the Philippines, but not in the long run.

I was at the state dinner for Chinese president Xi Jinping and we were all pleased that he honored Rizal in his speech, mentioning our national hero’s Chinese ancestry. “The ancestors of José Rizal, national hero and founding father of the Philippines, came from Jinjiang of China’s Fujian Province,” he said. 

Judging from the firm handshake of President Xi, he strikes me as a man who is firmly in control – having consolidated his leadership position following the Chinese parliament’s abolition of the presidential term limits – which means he is president for life. 

After the state dinner, I had a conversation with President Duterte. He was pleased with his meeting with President Xi. On the other hand, he told me he was happy with the return of the Balangiga Bells. I am confident President Rody will be visiting the United States sometime next year to personally thank President Trump and the American people.

I see the wisdom in President Duterte’s adoption of an independent foreign policy as it allows us to pursue a moderate path which is really key – where we can benefit from our friendship with both China and the US.

It has never been a zero-sum game foreign policy. The United States has and will always be our long-standing ally. Governments may change, administrations and leaders may change, but the one thing that remains constant is the special relationship between the United States and the Philippines that has endured through the years – sometimes tested, but never broken.

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