Fifty-Fifty for Gwen and Agnes, but sure ball for Junjun
The sure winner in the next year’s polls in Cebu will be Hilario P. Davide III for vice governor. With due respect to the young lady, Marie Daphne, daughter of an outstanding congressman, Benhur Salimbangon, she is a nice candidate. But her time has not yet come. She is too young and too unknown, especially in the south. For governor, as of today, Gwen Garcia has a slight edge over Agnes Magpale, maybe 55% to 45% but Agnes has the solid support of Malacañan and Inday Sara Duterte’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago. That means tremendous funds, logistics and influence. GMA, incumbent speaker of the House is cold to Gwen, having seen Garcia and her fellow pro-Bebot Alvarez loyalists standing very strongly for Alvarez at those crucial hours in the recent speaker’s coup. GMA and her inner circle will never forgive Gwen for that. Also, Gwen has the Ombudsman case to bother her.
Consider the following analyses: Junjun Davide is not supported by the Gullases in the first district but the Davides and the Gullases are really silent friends. Besides, Sibonga will be pro-Davide and Carcar will be a toss-up. Salimbangon is not very well known even in Talisay City, Minglanilla, the City of Naga, and San Fernando. Davide helped a lot of people there. The second district will deliver 85% of the votes for Junjun, their favorite son, who graciously gave way to Magpale. The seventh district too, may have 60% to 75% for Davide over Salimbangon. Well, Davide may lose in the third district but only slightly because those who will vote for Gwen will not necessarily carry Daphne. The fourth will go to Salimbangon but Davide may manage to get 30% to 40% with the support of the Martinezes of Bogo. Assuming that the fifth will go for Magpale and Salimbangon, the sixth will be a toss-up between Junjun and Daphne, but Davide has the edge, being the incumbent.
For governor, Gwen has the edge in the first district, and this is the biggest problem of Magpale. Agnes has to win overwhelmingly in the fourth, fifth, and sixth districts to neutralize the vote-rich first district. But Agnes will win hands down in the second district. The Davide loyalists will deliver to Agnes a big pleasant surprise from Argao and the rest except Dalaguete. The seventh, with the sure-ball victory for Peter John Calderon, over Nelson Garcia, Gwen’s brother, (who even lost as mayoralty bet in their father’s own turf,) will deliver 65% of the votes for Agnes. Garcia will only rely on the votes from Dumanjug, but even then, the Gica Family is campaigning very hard against Gwen in her own hometown. In Dumanjug and Barili (Garcia’s bailiwick), Daphne Salimbangon is likely to lose to Davide. The southern votes may turn out to be Garcia for governor and Davide for vice governor. The north may be Magpale for governor and Daphne for vice, but with a very, very slight edge for Salimbangon. The fifth will go for Davide.
The problem with this lady Salimbangon is that she was a last-minute candidate. She was not the first choice. Gwen was desperately looking for a vice governor. She went to Naga to ask a Chiong to run but she was turned down. Gwen was about to crown her son-in-law, Duke Frasco, vice mayor of Liloan, to be her vice governor. But her advisers told her that it would look so bad to have the mother-in-law as governor and the son-in-law as vice governor. Thus, Gwen went to Benhur but we suspect that the good gentleman from the fourth district would not want to be defeated by the young political titan from Argao. Hence, Benhur, perhaps just to appease Gwen, who was in a frantic search, and the deadline was fast approaching, urged his daughter Marie Daphne to run. And that was not a good process of choosing. The ward leaders were never consulted. Not like the inseparable tandem of Junjun and Agnes.
At the end of the day, the people will most probably reward Magpale for her long years of clean, dedicated, and selfless public service. And Davide will win for his many endearing ways, humble, honest, with unquestionable honor and dignity. Gwen will have to work very, very hard to dispel the stigma of the Ombudsman case that she faces. And Marie Daphne Salimbangon may really have to find another place, another time.
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