Presidential performance, sliding down

The latest survey shows that the presidential popularity has gone down by no less than 15 points between June and September. What should alarm Malacañan more is not popularity but performance. President Rodrigo Duterte’s enemies are consolidating and the so-called “Red October” has been taunted by the usual suspects. Soon, the administration may meet its “winter of discontent.”

Even as we support Duterte we have to tell him and his team now that presidential performance is sliding. If the trend continues, then his overall rating, especially on the economy, may end up, to the dismay of Duterte supporters, and to the vindication of his enemies, very disappointing. If the current trend is not reversed, people may conclude Duterte did not achieve what was desired and expected. This disappointing assessment may directly affect the 2019 mid-term elections. Duterte’s bets shall be on the defensive.

President Donald Trump is facing the same predicament with the upcoming mid-term US elections this November. Trump's Republican Party is apprehensive he may lose the control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is the crucial test of Duterte's coalition too, many of his senatorial and congressional bets may lose. The advantage of Trump over Duterte, however, is that the American economy is doing very well. Inflation is low, employment is high, the cost of living is very affordable to the working class. In our country, the economy is going down, and this may turn out to be the Duterte administration's weakest link. You can mark my words.

In fairness, we have five criteria for all presidents: 1.) Economy; 2.) Peace and order (including national defense); 3.) Administration of justice; 4.) Fight against corruption; and 5.) Foreign relations. Based on my analysis, Duterte’s ratings today compared to his first 12 months are: Economy - 75 (from 85); Peace and order - 90 (90); Justice - 82 (85); Corruption - 87 (89); Foreign relations 89 (90). Thus, the overall average today is 83.5. The first 12 months' performance average was 87.5. Therefore, the Duterte administration's overall rating slid by 4 percent. This is quite disturbing and, if not turned around, may worsen to being alarming.

Compared to the overall performance of the Aquino presidency, as of today, Duterte is still better but soon, he may end up equally a failed president, if not worse. Here is the Aquino's ratings based on the same criteria: Economy - 90; Peace and order - 75; Justice - 79; Corruption – 77; Foreign relations - 78 or an overall average of 79.8. It is the economic performance driving Duterte's grade spiral. If he and his economic team continue to fail in mitigating the price increase of rice, gas, and other basic commodities, then the drive to impeach him, or oust him by extra-constitutional means may yet gain more momentum. And we do not want that.

Trump may be a bad president when it comes to human rights and other soft issues, but if the American economy continues to perform amazingly well, the Republicans may dominate the November polls. Conversely, it is the economic downturn that is most likely to cause the loss of many Duterte bets next year. It is still the economy driving political victory or disaster in any elections. History is my best witness. Mark my words.