Good news or bad news?

What do you want first: the good news or the bad news?

That was the feeling I got as I listened to our guests on Agenda at OneNewsPh (CignalTV) regarding provisions and features of the BBL or Bangsa Moro Basic Law that has now been named the BOL or BangsaMoro Organic Law alongside the proposed draft constitution for federalism in the Philippines.

I started out being neutral or in the middle, then became optimistic and supportive then ended up remembering a quotation from Jean Baptiste Karr who said: “The more things change – the more they stay the same.”

As far as the BBL/BOL vision is concerned, the quick summary is that the law will channel more money to the Bangsa Moro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao or BARMM. It will place the MILF as the majority and controlling party. Once they have their parliament in place in Cotabato they will then move forward to establishing an Islam based society and self determination. More likely than not, this will establish a BARMM or Mindanao for “Mindanaoans” or Muslims of Mindanao.

The biggest challenge or concern will probably center on whatever policy of “integration” or “co-existence” the majority MILF or the BARM parliament could develop in order not to scare away, threaten or turn off “non-Muslims.” The next and more immediate challenge along the lines of integration is how the ruling majority or leaders of BARM or Muslim Mindanao could convince all the warrior/tribal based groups to think as “Citizens of BARMM” and not as tribal enemies. Third and probably the biggest threat to the future of BARMM is to insure complete transparency, public accountability and divine wisdom in receiving billions upon billions of pesos like never before, prioritizing expenditures and making sure that there is just, if not equal, distribution of wealth and opportunities for all, not just for the Muslims in their territory but also non-Muslims. More men have failed because of success and these important points would be where the BARMM should rise or fall.

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I never thought I would see a veteran warrior get “Boo-laga” but I did. While we’re all pleasantly discussing the features and cross impact of the proposed draft constitution for federalism on the BBL/BOL, our other guest Atty. Michael Yusingco went out of his way to advise Chairman Ghazali Jaafar that the draft constitution gives Congress the power to create or dissolve “federalized regions,” even the very special Bangsa Moro Autonomous Region. I later heard in the live coverage of the Senate hearing on the draft constitution that Congress will have the exclusive power to dissolve or create as long as it does not create more than the 16 “federated states.” The BARMM and CAR were not mentioned and that now has the attention of Congress because this could complicate things as far as the BBL/BOL proposed law is concerned. I expect that after the initial “Boo-laga,” Chairman Jaafar will rush to his colleagues in the consultative committee to stonewall the congressional power to dissolve the BARMM or enshrine its permanent existence into law if not the constitution.

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With half the year over, I guess it is safe to say that statistically speaking, the local automotive industry is in a worrying state of affairs and much of it is being blamed on TRAIN 1. Although many people bought cars in advance late last year, the seven-month slump or dip in vehicle sales for 2018 has started to be noticed by head offices in Japan, Korea etc. where regional executives are demanding and pressuring Philippine offices to explain the “unbelievable” or the unexplainable drop in sales month after month. After investing billions of pesos in car assembly plants, auto parts manufacturing plants, we can understand the shock and disbelief of regional officials why their local offices and agents can’t sell!

While the first quarter drop in sales maybe a result of “Pre-TRAIN 1” purchases, the subsequent dismal performance from March to July are all being blamed to TRAIN related inflation, particularly added taxes, high prices of fuel as well as other priority or prime commodities.

Most people might shrug off the matter until we all hear about production plants reducing production and operations, reducing work shifts from two down to one, redundancy programs being put into place in factories as well as sales headquarters. Next thing we will hear will be cutbacks in employee benefits or programs. By the last quarter of 2018, it will be a serious concern to learn how many vehicles will be forecasted for local production or imported for sale in the country because this will tell us what will happen to the local auto industry in 2019 and how much lost revenues and jobs the government has to take responsibility for due to inflation triggering taxation. It has happened before both here and abroad several times in recent history. The difference is that in modern countries, governments dutifully recognize when laws or taxes meant to benefit the nation can disrupt or impair certain industries, and responsibly respond by way of government intervention, reduced taxes to save jobs, temporary aid or direct assistance to manufacturing plants.

I would advise the current administration particularly those in the DTI, DOF and DOLE to carefully monitor and seriously consider the possibility of reduced productions in the manufacturing sector because that is were many jobs are now at risk. Don’t wait to see the fire before you ring the bell, prepare now, save jobs later!

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