The off and on again Trump-Kim Summit

Last week, Trump suddenly changed his mind again and announced that the US North Korea Summit meeting that had been cancelled was on again and scheduled on June 12 in Singapore. The meeting was originally cancelled because Trump did not like the combative rhetoric from the North Korean foreign ministry.

There have been speculations on the motivations for the two countries’ eagerness to have a summit. On the American side, there are international, domestic and personal reasons. The United States wants a denuclearized North Korea especially now that the North Koreans have developed the capability to send a missile to the US mainland. Trump is perceived to be eager to revel in creating an image of  being a global peacemaker that could earn him a Nobel Peace Prize. In one of his campaign rallies, the Trump crowd started chanting: “Nobel, Nobel, Nobel.” It was not clear whether the chanting was stage managed, but Trump’s facial expressions clearly showed his pleasure at the adoring chant.

Kim Jong Un’s motivation is more complex. After the announcement that the summit was on again, former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was speaking at a forum in  Stanford University to discuss her latest book POLITICAL RISK: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity. During the forum, the moderator asked Rice to comment on the recently revived North Korea – US Summit. This is what she said:

“North Korea is under pressure because of the increased sanctions. There is one of two possibilities (regarding the negotiations). The old North Korean playbook is that when you are under pressure, you go on a charm offensive. Then you come to the [negotiation] table and make some promises. You get sanction relief. Then you break your promises. That’s the old play book.  

It is possible that this is a new playbook because of Kim Jong Un’s serious dislike of the Chinese and the Chinese will tell you that. They will say that his father knew that the Chinese saved his father during the Korean War, so relations were pretty good. But Kim does not have much time for the Chinese. After all he killed his half brother in Malaysia who was under Chinese protection whom people believed the Chinese were setting up as the successor to Kim Jong Un. So this is not a good relationship.

Is he in fact doing something very strategic? Which is to say I [ Kim Jong Un] want to have direct relations with South Korea and the United States and bypass the Chinese who have 93 percent of trade and it is a better position for me – Kim Jong Un. Ten months ago I didn’t think he was that clever. I am beginning to think he’s pretty clever. And if he is that clever, there is a chance that you can get some progress.“

Condoleezza Rice also expounded on three basic principles for future negotiations between North Korea and the United States. First, President Trump should not negotiate with Kim Jong Un. As she said: “Have a photo opportunity. Declare peace. Leave the negotiations to [ Secretary] Mike Pompeo and the experts.“ Second, be aware of other stakeholders in the region especially South Korea and Japan. She said: “Do not negotiate away their equities.” Third, do not remove American forces in South Korea because these forces are there to stabilize the whole region. She added: “We do not want a remilitarization of Japan.”

Any positive results from the renewal of negotiations with North Korea will be welcomed by China and South Korea. The fact is that it was South Korea who was the most persistent advocate of the summit. Their hope is that, at the very least, it will lead to a final peace treaty between the two Koreas and might eventually end in a reunification of the two countries. This relaxation of tensions can also lead to a continuing dialogue between the two Koreas and possibly include further business and infrastructure links on the Korean peninsula.

A war on the peninsula could devastate the region and send millions of Korean refugees flooding into China. So the easing of tensions is also good for China who will also welcome a demilitarized Korean peninsula which could lead to American forces leaving the region. This possibility may sound far-fetched today; but, observers note that American forces have started withdrawing from global commitments in the Middle East. There have also been announcements of US troop reductions in Africa and Afghanistan.

Stratfor analysts, however, have added: “For Japan the resumption creates a potential risk.“ While any peace deal might remove the nuclear threat to the United States, it is unlikely that it will also remove the North Korean shorter range missile capable of hitting Japan. Any long term pull back of troops from the Korean peninsula may also mean that Japan will now be in the front line against China, its old nemesis. This will force Japan to remilitarize. 

The most vital question is whether or not North Korea is really willing to give up its nuclear capabilities. Its rulers have always believed that giving up a nuclear program would not lead to ending future hostilities and only leave North Korea vulnerable to any political and military action later by the United States or even China. 

The US-North Korea summit will result in a lot of photo opportunities for the participants; but, I seriously doubt that it will lead to a truly peaceful and nuclear-free region. 

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