Disaster resilience

Next month the Tokyo Metropolitan Government or TMG is distributing a million pink illustrated booklets in schools, giving simple but detailed instructions to children about what to do in case of natural calamities.

On Sept. 1, 2015, the TMG began distributing a larger book, with yellow cover, providing extensive guidelines on what to do during earthquakes, floods, fires and other disasters, including evacuation routes and locations of temporary shelters. The book has copies in English and has audio and braille versions available in public libraries. It includes instructions on a wide range of subjects such as first aid and even how to make an emergency toilet when the toilet won’t flush, and the use of stabilizing devices for furniture.

A top priority is preparedness for a magnitude 7.3 earthquake of intensities 6 to 7, with the epicenter right below metropolitan Tokyo, where the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates are pushing under the side of the continental plate. Japanese seismologists expect this quake to occur within 30 years.

The quake is expected to generate tsunamis up to 2.6 meters high, hitting Tokyo within “2 hours and 20 minutes at the earliest,” according to the disaster prevention guidebook prepared by the TMG.

As a resident of a country also regularly hit by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, I would have laughed off such precise estimates, except that I have experienced first-hand the Japanese concept of time. When the sign on the subway platform says, for example, that the train is due at 9:21, it arrives not at 9:20, not 9:22, but precisely at 9:21.

Timelines have also been set in Tokyo for the restoration of lifelines after a major disaster: 30 days for water and sewerage, seven days for electricity, 60 days for gas and 14 days for telecommunications. Earthquake-resistant joints are being installed on water pipes and quake-resistant sewer pipes have been introduced.

Earthquake prediction is not an exact science. But Japan’s long experience with powerful earthquakes and its advanced seismic monitoring capability have allowed the country to assess statistical probabilities with some measure of reliability.

The Japanese even have detailed projections of the potential damage from such an earthquake hitting the heart of Tokyo, a mega city with a daytime population of 13 million. The damage estimates, drawn up way back in April 2012: 5,600 people dead from the earthquake itself and another 4,100 from fires mostly electrical; and 147,600 injured, 21,900 of them seriously, mostly from the quake and the others from fires. Approximately 116,200 buildings are expected to be damaged by the earthquake and another 188,100 from fires.

The TMG expects some 3.39 million evacuees, with 5.17 million people stranded. The assessments are made for an earthquake that strikes during the afternoon rush hour (6 p.m.) in winter.

Unlike in Metro Manila, where people have been repeatedly warned about a devastating “Big One” when the East Valley Fault moves, Japanese preparedness is not limited to regular earthquake drills where people file out of schools and office buildings in orderly fashion, hands over their heads.

Disaster preparedness is inculcated early among the Japanese, who have experienced apocalyptic earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons and fires. As we know, such catastrophes have struck Japan as recently as March 11, 2011, when we saw images of a monster tsunami rolling across cities in northeastern Japan that we normally saw only in the movies.

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Disaster preparedness has become so developed in Japan that measures to promote it have become law. Ordinances passed by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government include not just requirements for earthquake reinforcement for buildings and public works facilities, but also for private businesses to set aside a three-day supply of emergency items for their employees who are stranded in case disaster strikes. The Fire Service Act requires business establishments to designate a “disaster preparedness manager” and have a disaster preparedness and fire defense plan.

The TMG guidebook covers not only earthquakes but also torrential rains and flooding, typhoons, eruptions of any of Tokyo’s 21 volcanoes (all on islands, with eight inhabited), terrorist and external attacks, flu pandemics, nuclear disasters and large-scale accidents. The TMG has passed laws covering such incidents.

Earthquake-resistant buildings bear a mark at the entrance, given by the TMG for free. There are also certified “fireproof zones.” Certain roads have also been selected as “firebreak belts” and are undergoing upgrades. Utility poles are being torn down along designated “emergency transport roads,” which will be used exclusively by emergency vehicles during disasters.

A list of the emergency items is included in the disaster preparedness manual. The book tells residents to prepare for the consequences of a major catastrophe, including the death of loved ones. After assessing the chaos if everyone rushed home after a powerful earthquake, Tokyo residents are also advised to prepare for up to three days of being stranded away from home. A simultaneous rush to go home, Tokyo residents are told, could hamper emergency rescue efforts and operations to put out fires, restore public utilities and open supply routes.

To prevent such a rush, the TMG has also developed a system of setting up temporary shelters, with the private sector getting government support for participation.

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The TMG has a disaster prevention division under the Bureau of General Affairs. Its director for disaster management and coordination, Takayuki Saito, and several other TMG officials told me that they have had versions of the disaster preparedness guidebook for as long as they could remember.

There is even a list of “human perception and reaction” to earthquakes of varying intensities: “startled” and roused from sleep at Intensity 4; “frightened” and needing to hold onto something stable at 5; “difficult” to remain standing at 6; and “impossible” to remain standing at upper 6 to 7.

There are measures to assist persons requiring special assistance, including the elderly, disabled, seriously ill, infants, pregnant women and foreigners.

The Philippines doesn’t have the resources of Japan, the world’s third largest economy. But it is possible for the Philippines to develop what Tokyo officials told me was one of the most critical elements of disaster preparedness: personal and community involvement.

Japan recognizes problems in raising public awareness of disaster preparedness, among them the lack of interest of youths and the reality that many people don’t even know their neighbors.

But their message should resonate in the Philippines, where most people have been largely indifferent to disaster preparedness: even the wealthiest government can only go so far; you are ultimately responsible for saving your life.