No miscalculation
While the risks are certainly there, there will be no dangerous miscalculation in the South China Sea contrary to what Philippine ambassador to China Chito Sta. Romana fears in light of China's aggressive activities in the area. The United States, which insists on freedom of navigation through the vital sea lanes, has made it perfectly clear that its interests do not go beyond that insistence.
It is easy to be deluded into thinking otherwise because the US Navy has been making passes through the area, using some of the most fearsome assets in its arsenal. But it has always made sure not to breach certain limits that the Chinese have imposed around the growing number of artificial islands it has built in the disputed sea. It may brush past the peripheries of these limits but has always chosen not to break through and otherwise intrude.
Besides, how can there be a miscalculation when the United States is pretty calculating in its moves. Never has the United States sailed through the South China Sea without first making its intentions known. In whatever form or manner, there has always been a prior announcement of what the US Navy intends to do and a time frame within which to do it.
Willing to play ball but unwilling to do so at some cost to its pride, China stalks every US sail-through with as much seriousness and intensity as may satisfy its prideful requirements but never to the point of impeding any of the US maneuvers. And for the US, this is enough. It gets to sail through with no incident and thus manages to convince its own self just to what extent it remains relevant.
But the truth of the matter is that, in this neck of the woods, the continuing US policy of holding back on real action has greatly eroded what remains of its relevance in the post-Gulf War era, where its mistake of invading Iraq and deposing Saddam Hussein not only destroyed the balance of power in the Middle East but also put to question its ability to act wisely instead of just kicking in the door.
So profoundly affected was the United States by the Saddam caper that when it came time to kick in some doors, it chose to simply call if somebody was home. And the Chinese, ever the attentive student in geopolitical affairs, was slowly accumulating valuable lessons from what it sees. And what it saw was enough to embolden it in its own neighborhood.
Take the case of its island-building activities. The islands did not just appear in the South China Sea one day. It was a painstaking effort to build them from submerged rocks. More importantly, China knew that from the first squirt of mud from the sea bottom, such activities could not have gone unnoticed by the ever watchful eyes of United States spy planes and satellites.
But the United States did nothing. It was a valuable lesson for China that came at no cost other than perhaps some noisy but useless condemnation. It knew that it can proceed at will without any interference from the one place where interference mattered -the United States. So, if what the US wanted in return was a simple right to freedom of navigation, China was more than willing to oblige. Both US and China can play their games because they know the rules at heart. There will be no miscalculation.
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