State of play

The results of a survey taken after the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacies circulated since last week.

It is too early, of course, to predict with any certainty the results of the May 2016 elections. Surveys like this one, however, are significant because they will influence how the funders will line up.

The abovementioned survey was reportedly commissioned by a big businessman and circulates mainly in the business community. Using the standard number of respondents for random sampling, the survey tracks voter preference patterns in the National Capital Region (NCR).

Candidates for president received the following preference shares: Grace Poe, 31%; Jejomar Binay, 30%; Manuel Roxas, 12%; Miriam Santiago, 12%; Camilo Sabio, 4%; Lito David, 2% and Eli Pamatong, 1%.

Preference for vice-president were distributed thus: Francis Escudero, 37%; Bongbong Marcos, 23%; Alan Cayetano, 17%; Gregorio Honasan, 7%; Leni Robredo, 5%; and Antonio Trillanes, 5%.

Among the leading candidates, the general rankings roughly resemble the results for the NCR publicly reported by the other survey organizations. Because Rodrigo Duterte’s name was taken out of the options presented respondents after he decided not to seek the presidency, it is interesting who gained the most from the 15% share the Davao mayor had in the earlier surveys.

Before this survey, it was generally considered that Poe would gain most from Duterte’s exit. That did not turn out to be the case.

Poe actually lost share compared to the earlier surveys. It was Binay who appears to have gained the most from this, bringing him up to a statistical tie for first place. This could be due to the sharper differentiation Binay makes between the administration and himself.

We should point out that the NCR consistently votes for the opposition every election. About one in six voters are registered in this region, making it the biggest distinct constituency. Its importance is magnified by the emergence of what we now call Mega Manila, the metropolitan region and the adjacent highly urbanized areas of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan.

The Mega Manila constituency generally shares the same voting pattern. It accounts for nearly a fourth of all voters nationwide.

The larger Lingayen-Lucena voting corridor, again tending to follow the trend set by the NCR, hold about 40% of all voters. This is generally considered the decisive battleground simply by the sheer size of its voter base.

In the 2004 elections, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo lost in the Lingayen-Lucena corridor (except for Pampanga). But she made up for that by winning the Visayas vote by nearly a landslide. If Mar Roxas intends to overcome the opposition-inclined Mega-Manila constituency, he must do the same and win heavily in the Visayas.

Likwise, if Poe wants to keep some statistical distance between her and Binay, she should sharpen her anti-administration tone. Otherwise she fuels the suspicion she is Noynoy’s “other candidate.”

We will have to await the next nationwide survey to determine how Mindanao will go. The region heavily supported Duterte’s aborted candidacy. If the trend shown by the NCR survey holds, the biggest share of the Duterte voting base will go to Binay.

The abovementioned NCR survey might tend to understate Marcos’ voting share relative to Escudero’s in the vice-presidential contest. Marcos is relying on the heavily condensed voting of the so-called “Solid North” and, to a lesser degree, the Waray vote.

The next nationwide survey will more likely show a much closer contest between Escudero and Marcos, especially since the highly tribal Bicol vote is now neutralized by the proliferation of vice-presidential candidates coming from the region.

The peril in the emerging voting profile indicated by last week’s NCR tracking poll is that it could induce the administration party to pull out all the stops and spend even more than it already has to alter the pattern of voter preference.

Reply

I yield some space here to accommodate the reply of the camp of former Speaker Noli Fuentebella. The politician figured in this space last week among the names I listed of politicians running for office even as they face complaints relating to the misuse of pork barrel funds.

Mayor Jimmy Delena of Presentacion, Camarines Sur describes the new complaint for plunder filed against Fuentebella as a “smear job.” He says the new complaint merely recycles old charges against the former Speaker. The Ombudsman, according to the mayor, had dismissed the same charges.

Delena claims the new complaint was lodged at the Ombudsman by a “minion” of Fuentebella’s main rival in the province. That rival, he says, actually faces a graft suit at the Sandiganbayan for which an arrest warrant has actually been issued.

He suggests that “harassment complaints” like this one, says Delena, merely clog up the dockets and slow down the work of the judicial system. He proposes that filing fees for graft and plunder complaints ought to be increased in order to deter “harassment complaints.”

He does not say how high filing fees should be raised. They surely cannot be too high for rich politicians with the means to spend for them even if higher fees might deter ordinary citizens with real complaints to lodge. At any rate, the Ombudsman is mandated by law to look into complaints even if they are filed anonymously. 

To be sure, Camarines Sur has more than its share of colorful politicians with a distinct dislike for each other. And yes, they all seem equally inclined to file suits against each other. The judiciary, after all, is an equal opportunity forum for those with some dirt on their favorite rivals.