PNoy's endorsement: Positive factor or a kiss of death
Whether you are a PNoy loyalist or a determined critic of the President and his administration, you have to come to your senses and admit that when an incumbent President raises the hands of a candidate that will realistically add millions of votes for the endorsee. A sitting President has control of billions of public work funds, intelligence funds and social services funds, including the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program, as well as tremendous other government resources that can be allocated in a manner that favors an endorsed candidate.
And so, if the contest will turn out to be one-on-one, against Jojo Binay, Secretary Mar Roxas may beat the vice president and may make it to Malacañan in 2016,albeit by the skin of his teeth. That is assuming that Grace Poe and Chizz Escudero will opt not to play the role of spoilers and campaign for Mar. And that is assuming that Mayor Digong Duterte will finally decide not to run, so that Roxas can get a big slice of the votes from Mindanao. That is also assuming that Senator Bongbong Marcos will not run and corner both the solid North and the Waraylandia.
But if and when there shall be four or more candidates for the presidency, then Jojo Binay may win most probably. This is because Grace Poe will take away more votes from the Roxas bailiwick than from the Binay strongholds. The Chizz Escudero who pledged his heart to Grace, may deliver the Bicolano vote to Grace, instead of going to Mar Roxas. A Rudy Duterte candidacy will damage Roxas more than it will affect the votes for Binay in Mindanao. Without Duterte Mindanao will tend to choose Mar Roxas than Jojo Binay.
If Bongbong won't run, the solid Ilocos vote may go to Grace Poe rather than to Roxas the late Fernando Poe was from Pangasinan, which is located in Region One, like Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur. If Marcos will not run, the Cagayan Valley votes will go to Binay not to Roxas. Binay has roots in Isabela and Nueva Viscaya, aside from Batangas and Makati. If Grace Poe runs, Manila will go to her because Erap is more than a brother to Da King. And so, the President should do his best to stop Grace from running and wait for 2021.
A presidential endorsement can make or unmake a candidacy. President Cory abandoned Ramon Mitra and Marcelo Fernan and opted to support FVR who was not even a member of PDP Laban. FVR beat Mitra and Miriam Defensor Santiago. FVR then supported Joe de Venecia but Joe de V was badly beaten by Erap. Erap supported Fernando Poe and Da King supposedly won but was badly cheated in Mindanao resulting to the proclamation of GMA. GMA endorsed Gibo Teodoro but her endorsement proved to be a kiss of death to Gibo Teodoro.
Many people do not like PNoy but if they are realistic, they have to admit that President Aquino has recovered his popularity and his adherents will most probably listen to him and vote for Mar. But if all of them run against each other: Mar, Grace, Rudy, Bongbong and Miriam (who will take away from Roxas big bulks of votes from Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, and Antique) that will mean the end of Roxas' dream to become president like his illustrious grandfather, Manuel Acuna Roxas. Roxas versus Binay, one-on-one will make Roxas win by a hairline. Not really because he is very good but because Binay has been very badly damaged.
- Latest
