Protecting our nation’s rights

The combination of worldwide concern about China’s increasing aggressiveness in its foreign policy, together with its increased military capability and the strong public stand of President Aquino against appeasement in dealing with China, has made P-Noy an increasingly major figure in international politics. His statements regarding China are now being quoted on the world scene.

In April President Obama will visit several countries in Asia including Japan and the Philippines. Very high on the agenda will definitely be the increasing tensions between China and its neighbors.

The one thing America’s allies in Asia, including the Philippines, will be asking is whether the United States will commit to defend them against Chinese aggressiveness. In 2012, the United States supposedly arranged for China and the Philippines to mutually withdraw their forces from the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. The Philippine forces left but China kept its forces intact. The United States did not take any action. Was this American inaction part of a policy of appeasement in this region?

In a visit to Japan last February, US Secretary of State John Kerry met with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. Kerry stressed the longstanding US commitment to defend Japan if it is attacked.

Kerry said : “I...underscored that the United States remains as committed as ever to upholding our treaty obligations with our Japanese allies...That includes with respect  to the East China Sea.”

Kerry also said that the United States “neither recognizes nor accepts” an air defense zone China has declared in the region that it disputes with Japan and other Asia nations. The United States deliberately flew B-52 bombers through the China’s air defense zone after that country publicly declared it last year. Noticeably, there was no move by China to interfere with the flight of the American bombers.

It is very clear from Secretary Kerry’s statement that the United States is prepared to defend Japan and its territorial claims in the East China which are also being claimed by China. I cannot recall any similar public statement by a major American official that the United States is also prepared to defend the Philippines including the islands and atolls in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) under dispute with China.

From my perspective, it is not clear to what extent the United States is prepared to directly assist the Philippines in the event of an attempted takeover by China of the atolls remaining in Philippine hands.

There are, however, indications that the United States recognizes the legality, under international law, of the Philippine claims. US Assistant Secretary of State Danny Russell, in a testimony before a US House subcommittee said:

“There is a growing concern that this pattern of behavior (China’s provocative maritime actions) in the South China Sea reflects an incremental effort by China to assert control over the are contained in the so-called nine-dash line despite the objections of its neighbors and despite the lack of any explanation or apparent basis under international law regarding the scope of the claim itself...I want to reinforce the point that under international law, maritime claims in the South China Sea must be derived from land features...The international community would welcome China to clarify or adjust its nine-dash line claim to being in accordance with the international law of the sea.”

Asst. Secretary of State Russell said that China’s claim was inconsistent with international law. In effect he was saying that China’s territorial claims were bogus and illegal under international law.

The other issue that the Philippine government must begin to address is the preparation for possible events if the country wins the arbitration case and its territorial claims over the islands and shoals in the West Philippine Sea is upheld by international tribunals.

Chito Sta. Romana, an international expert of China affairs and former ABC News Beijing executive producer, has this to say:

“While the Philippines pursues its case against China in the arbitration tribunal, it faces the challenge of planning for the post-arbitration scenario. Though it will not be a slam dunk to win the case, there will be a greater need for international support afterwards to ensure that China abides by the tribunal’s decision.

What complicates the situation is the intensifying strategic rivalry between China, a rising power, and the United States, the dominant power in the region and the Philippines’ treaty ally. The two powers are very much aware that such rivalry could lead to tragic consequences if it is not kept under control. Hence the efforts of both countries to seek cooperation and avoid possible conflict.

What impact will the US effort to accommodate China’s emergence have on the territorial and maritime disputes in the West Philippine Sea? Can the Philippines rely on the US promise of support? Only time will tell how the situation will unfold.

But President Aquino is right when he told the New York Times reporter that ‘if we in turn do not protect our rights, then we cannot expect anybody else to protect our rights.”

There have been several commentators that have expressed concern that these continuing tensions in the region could lead to open conflict. There does not seem to be any immediate threat to result in this scenario coming true because, at the moment, China does not seem to be ready to openly challenge the United States.

In the forthcoming April visit, the question will be to what extent Obama is prepared to commit American support for the Philippines. 

But whatever the answer, P-Noy is right when he says the Filipino people must protect our nation’s rights in whatever way we can.

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