8 provinces identified as COVID-19 areas of concern

MANILA, Philippines — Experts have identified eight “provinces of concern” for recording a significant increase in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 cases in the first week of this month.

The OCTA Research group, which is composed of academics from the University of the Philippines and University of Santo Tomas, said these are Davao del Sur, Benguet, Isabela, Bataan, Leyte, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan and Cagayan.

“At the national level, data shows we had a decrease in cases, but the cases are more spread out throughout the country. The situation remains tenuous at the local level and requires more vigilant monitoring,” OCTA’s report released yesterday read.

Data from the Department of Health (DOH) shows Davao del Sur recorded a slight uptick in the average number of daily new cases from 109 from Nov. 24 to Nov. 30 to 113 from Dec. 1 to 7.

Benguet almost doubled its average cases from 38 to 70 while cases in Isabela rose from 13 to 31.

The number of confirmed cases in Cagayan increased from seven to 18, Ilocos Norte (six to 22), Bataan (19 to 25), Leyte (19 to 24) and Pangasinan (17 to 19).

OCTA said Quezon City, Pateros, Muntinlupa City, Tuguegarao in Cagayan, San Pablo in Laguna, La Trinidad in Benguet and Balanga in Bataan are local government units (LGUs) of concern in Luzon.

While they are classified as moderate-risk areas, the group said there was an increase in new cases in the first week of the month.

High-risk LGUs

The group said Makati, Davao City, Baguio and Mankayan in Benguet are high-risk LGUs.

Makati has a hospital occupancy rate of 80 percent, which is above the 70 percent critical threshold set by the DOH.

The average daily cases in Davao City rose from 98 to 104, Baguio (16 to 32) and Mankayan (nine to 21).

OCTA said the increase in new cases could be due to community transmission and the rise in mobility within and among provinces.

It also cited “deteriorating compliance” with minimum health standards due to pandemic fatigue and the failure of LGUs to monitor and enforce quarantine regulations.

“In some places, the situation is exacerbated by continuing post-typhoon effects, including delays in te

st reports due to the temporary closing of test centers in areas, such as Isabela and Cagayan,” it said.

Post-holiday surge

OCTA said the number of new cases, especially in urban areas are expected to rise in the coming weeks.

It said an uncontrolled post-holiday surge could be prevented if all sectors would cooperate to minimize the risk of transmission of the virus.

“We believe this is achievable if all of us work together to prevent significant relaxation of restrictions and behavior over the holiday season,” it said.

“A substantial relaxation of restrictions and behavior during this season may result in exponential increases in transmission and prevalence potentially leading to an uncontrolled post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases in the New Year,” OCTA said.