La Niña to bring ‘excessive rain’ in 2021

MANILA, Philippines — La Niña is expected to bring excessive rain over most parts of the country in the first quarter of next year, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned the public yesterday.

“If ever La Niña persists, the impact will be experienced mostly around the Visayas and Mindanao and eastern Luzon, particularly in January and February until March as of forecast period,” Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said in a virtual climate forum.

La Niña is associated with cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific and above normal rainfall.

Solis said latest forecasts by international climate monitoring centers show that La Niña conditions are ongoing and might continue until February.

She said a sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5, the threshold for La Niña, was experienced last month.

Solis said La Niña would also bring slightly cooler temperatures and more cyclones in the first quarter of next year.

She said the minimum temperature in mountainous areas in Luzon could drop to 8.2 degrees Celsius by January or February.

“There is a higher probability to be in above normal rainfall category come December, January, February and March,” Solis added.

She said the rains are expected to replenish the dams and watersheds in the country.

Below normal

As of 6 a.m. yesterday, the water level in Angat Dam was at 177.33 meters.

By the end of October, it is expected to reach 178.35, which is still below its normal operating level of 180 meters and normal high water level of 210 meters, PAGASA hydrologist Elmer Caringal said.

“By the end of October, we still expect Angat’s water elevation to remain relatively low,” Caringal said.