In the dark

Either our politicians are tone-deaf, or they can afford to ignore surveys because they are cooking up something that will be foisted as a fait accompli on a leery nation.

Every day the latest effort to amend the Constitution, with federalism marketed as the path to the Promised Land, looks more and more like a self-serving political exercise rather than an attempt at institutional reforms to attract investments and create jobs, ease poverty, promote inclusive growth and pave the way for enduring peace.

As of yesterday, discussions on Charter change and federalism were overshadowed by a proposal to postpone the 2019 elections through a people’s initiative, ostensibly to allow Congress to devote its full attention to Cha-cha.

The country is still in the dark on the proposed transitory period in case Congress, convening as a constituent assembly, approves the federal charter.

People are also in the dark on the final version of the federal charter submitted by the consultative committee or Concom to President Duterte, which was forwarded to Congress for review.

Malacañang officials were happy to report that the provision in the federal charter allowing Duterte to seek reelection under a federal system has been deleted. Even the president during the transition would have to be elected – with Duterte excluded as a candidate.

So the country is electing a transition president? When will this be and how much will it cost? What happens to Duterte and his constitutional successor, Vice President Leni Robredo?

No one can say how long such a transition might be. The last time we had an interim national assembly or Batasang Pambansa, the interim period lasted six years and the assembly served as the rubberstamp of the Marcos dictatorship.

There’s a proposal to have all former presidents sit in an advisory capacity during the transition. Can Fidel Ramos, Joseph Estrada, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Noynoy Aquino work together? It looks like a recipe for chaos.

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Even Duterte’s economic team is reportedly worried. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia is not the only Cabinet member who has expressed doubts over President Duterte’s cure-all for intractable problems such as poverty and Islamic separatism: the shift to federalism.

Pernia, the government’s chief economist, has warned that federalism can disrupt economic growth and even leave behind 13 of the 18 proposed federated regions. The 13, he says, are currently unprepared politically and economically for federalism.

Expenditures for the shift are also seen to push the fiscal deficit to at least six percent of gross domestic product, or about double the deficit cap of 3.2 percent of GDP set for next year.

During the Senate hearing yesterday on Cha-cha, the additional expenditure was estimated at a whopping P55 billion for the expanded bureaucracy alone, with the money to come from taxpayers of course. To raise the funds, perhaps the government will raise the excise tax on fuel to 20 percent and make pump prices double within a year.

“The expenditure will be immense,” Pernia told “The Chiefs” on Cignal TV’s One News channel. “That’s really going to wreak havoc in terms of our fiscal situation and we will certainly experience a downgrading in our (credit) ratings.”

The “momentum of infrastructure improvement,” currently involving the interconnection of regions, would also be disrupted, Pernia warned.

The optimistic estimate is that it would take four or five years for the 13 regions to be ready for federalism. Pernia said among the regions that are ready are Metro Manila, Cebu, Southern Tagalog and Central Luzon.

I’ve heard other Cabinet members express similar misgivings about federalism. Pernia said members of the economic team have relayed their concerns to Malacañang.

“For other countries, it took years to shift to federalism… in the Philippines, we cannot (rush) it,” Pernia told The Chiefs. “Federalism may be good for the economy and for the people, but we really have to do our homework first in terms of preparing well for the country, for the economy to be ready for federalism.”

As of yesterday, Pernia still had a job.

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For ordinary folks, the principal objection to federalism and the latest effort not just to amend but to rewrite the entire Constitution is that it’s all about giving politicians more power, more control over public funds, limitless terms in office, and more of the same dysfunctional structures for lesser mortals.

Administration officials say the public opposition, as reflected in the latest survey conducted by Pulse Asia, arises from the lack of understanding of what federalism is all about. The officials should worry because such lack of understanding is a lethal infirmity for anyone trying to sell a new idea.

Even among those who understand the idea, however, there are fears that federalism will bloat the bureaucracy and add to red tape, unnecessarily increase public spending, and aggravate the already disjointed, unplanned implementation of programs and projects. It could wreak havoc on Duterte’s other pet idea, the much-touted “Build Build Build” infrastructure program.

Such concerns are on top of the perception that this is just another self-serving proposal that the administration and its allies in Congress are trying to shove down the nation’s throat.

Proponents have yet to provide a convincing answer to a basic question, which is being asked not just by opponents but also those who remain neutral on the issue: why do we need federalism?