NCR cases decreasing at ‘slow rate’ – OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — While the overall situation is improving, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is decreasing at a “slow rate,” according to the OCTA Research group.

At the current pace, OCTA fellow Guido David said new cases in the region are expected to decrease to just less than 600 by the end of September.

Data from the Department of Health showed that NCR reported an average of 1,002 new cases from Aug. 20 to 26, down nine percent from 1,102 average daily cases the week before.

The reproduction number, which indicates the number of individuals that a positive person can infect, dropped to 0.99 as of Aug. 23, the first time it went below 1.0 since May 11.

“A reproduction number below 1.0 indicates infections are trending down,” OCTA fellow Guido David said. “However, as noted before, new cases in the NCR are decreasing at a slow rate.”

Meanwhile, the positivity rate, which indicates the number of positive results out of the total tests conducted, went down from 14.7 percent on Aug. 18 to 13.6 percent on Aug. 25.

David said it might take eight weeks before the positivity rate decreases to less than five percent, which is recommended by the World Health Organization.

Health care utilization for COVID cases dropped from 37 percent to 35 percent, while intensive care unit capacity went down from 31 percent to 27 percent.