Metro Manila may stay under Alert Level 4 while DOH studies data
MANILA, Philippines — Despite the downward trend in COVID-19 infections, Metro Manila may remain under Alert Level 4, the Department of Health said Monday, as it remains cautious about interpreting the data because of the lower output of testing laboratories.
Alethea de Guzman, director of the DOH epidemiological bureau, said Metro Manila has recorded a sudden downward trend in pandemic infections, with the average daily reported cases decreasing by 16% from 5,145 as of September 13 to 4,347 as of September 20.
She added that the reproduction number in the region, which refers to the number of additional people infected by one COVID-19 case, has dropped to 0.8555 as of September 13.
However, 76% of the capital region's intensive care unit (ICU) beds are in use as of September 24, a rate classified as "high risk." Bed utilization rate is at 63% or "moderate risk" while that of mechanical ventilators is at 59%.
"If these numbers of NCR (National Capital Region) are to be used as our basis, it is possible that it will remain under Alert Level 4," de Guzman said at a press briefing.
"We will continue to study our metrics and numbers and it is important to have accurate data so we can come up with the correct recommendation," she added.
Metro Manila will remain under Alert Level 4 — the second most stringent classification under the government's new quarantine system — until the end of the month. The capital region, home to more than 12 million people and the Philippines' economic center, is the pilot area for the alert level system.
De Guzman said the DOH is very cautious in saying that there is a decline in the number of infections in Metro Manila, noting that the output of testing laboratories have decreased by about ten percent. She said the number of persons tested by laboratories went down from 285,000 to 248,000 in the recent week.
The large decline in reported cases may have been largely affected by the decline in the output of laboratories conducting tests, she added.
"We have to work with the MMDA (Metro Manila Development Authority) and our LGUs (local government units) to determine the possible reasons why our testing decreased. Is it because despite the active case finding being done by our LGUs, there are no additional cases or we can only find a few cases?" de Guzman said.
"We are very cautiously interpreting the decline that we saw because we need to assess the large decline in the laboratory output we saw in the past week," she added.
De Guzman said the DOH is expected to announce the updated alert level of Metro Manila by October 1.
Easing
Metro Manila has been under alert level number four since September 16. Under the alert status, food establishments can use up to 30% of their seating capacity for outdoor or al fresco dine-in, regardless of vaccination status. For indoor dine-in services, only fully-vaccinated patrons can be served and restaurants or eateries can fill in up to ten percent of their venues.
The same capacity limits and vaccination status distinction are imposed on outdoor and indoor services offered by personal care establishments namely barber shops, hair spas, nail spasm and beauty salons. Workers of food establishments and personal care services should be fully inoculated against COVID-19 and should comply with minimum health standards like wearing of face masks, physical distancing, and frequent handwashing.
For face-to-face religious gatherings, up to 30% of the venue may be occupied for outdoor events, regardless of vaccination status. Up to ten percent of the venue capacity is permitted for indoor religious gatherings but only fully vaccinated persons can join. Priests and other religious ministers and their assistants should be fully vaccinated.
Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said about P30 billion in wages may return to the economy per week if Metro Manila's alert status is downgraded. About 12% of businesses remain closed after Metro Manila was placed under alert level number four, an improvement from 16% when the region was still under a stricter form of modified enhanced community quarantine.
"Many of our countrymen want to return to work. That's why we thank the IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) for allowing even at Alert Level 4 the sensitive activities of concern like indoor dine-in, outdoor dine-in and personal care services," Lopez said.
Population protection
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said more jobs would be restored once Metro Manila achieves population protection against COVID-19. He noted that as of September 26, more than seven million persons in the capital region or 71.86% of the eligible population have been fully vaccinated.
"We are about to achieve the population protection of 80%, and once it happens, Christmas will not just be happy, we can go back to work. Because of the vaccines, there will be more jobs," Roque said.
About 22.54 million or 30.63% of the Philippines' eligible population have received their first dose. Some 20.3 million individuals, or 26.33% of the eligible population, have been fully vaccinated.
As of September 26, nine regions are classified as "high risk" namely Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Ilocos, Caraga, SOCCSKSARGEN, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol, and MIMAROPA. The rest of the regions, including Metro Manila, are classified as "moderate risk."
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