7,174 new cases; OCTA sees downward trend

MANILA, Philippines — Even as 7,174 new COVID infections were recorded yesterday, the OCTA Research Group sees the rate of increase in new cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) continuing its downward trend.

In its latest report issued on Saturday, the researchers said they expected average daily new cases in the NCR to be lower than 2,000 by May 14.

“The average number of new COVID-19 cases reported per day in the NCR was 2,347 from May 1 to 7. The current daily average is 58 percent lower compared to the peak of the surge (March 29 to April 4),” the OCTA team said in the report covering the week from May 1 to 7.

The reproduction rate for NCR has decreased to .69 percent.

“The moving average and trend lines show a continued downward trajectory for new COVID-19 cases in the NCR,” they said.

The group said that the NCR, while still the region that had the highest number of new COVID-19 cases, had posted a negative growth rate in new cases, at -27 percent, “marking the third consecutive week with more than 20 percent decrease in cases” while posting a hospital bed occupancy of just 51 percent, and 69 percent ICU bed occupancy.

“The positivity rate in the NCR over the past week was 15 percent, from an average of 21,866 tests per day. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR for COVID-19 decreased to 51 percent, while ICU occupancy decreased below the 70 percent critical level, down to 69 percent. However, ICU utilization for COVID-19 remained high, with 846 ICUs in the NCR occupied,” OCTA said.

OCTA said that while the COVID-19 situation was already “stable” in the NCR, Laguna – among the provinces in the Greater Manila bubble that also includes Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal – was not yet out of the woods.

“While the trend in the NCR is stable, the trend in Laguna is not yet stable,” OCTA said as it zoomed into the province’s Calamba City.

The research group also cited Cagayan de Oro and Puerto Princesa City in Palawan as “areas of concern.” Bacolod remained in this category of the research group.

“Specifically, there was an increase in new cases in Calamba. Outside the NCR Bubble, the following are considered areas of concern due to a rise in new COVID-19 cases: Cagayan de Oro in Misamis Oriental, Puerto Princesa in Palawan, and Bacolod in Negros Occidental,” OCTA said.

“Hospital bed and ICU occupancy for COVID-19 remained high in Baguio City, Tuguegarao, Cainta, Antipolo, Zamboanga City and Calamba,” OCTA added.

Meanwhile, confirmed COVID-19 cases nationwide soared to 1,101,990, as the Department of Health (DOH) logged 7,174 cases yesterday.

An additional 204 deaths brought to 18,472 the total number of COVID-related fatalities, which account for 1.68 percent of total cases.

Those who recovered from the infection reached 1,022,224 or 92.8 percent of the total cases, with the inclusion of 9,197 additional recoveries.

Active cases stand at 5.6 percent or 61,294 out of the total.

The NCR still topped the regions with high active and new cases followed by Calabarzon and Central Luzon. Western Visayas ranked fourth and Cagayan Valley fifth.

As of May 7, over 11.4 million individuals have been tested with a 10.21 percent positivity rate. Among those who tested positive were 17,749 healthcare workers, and 17,128 returning overseas Filipinos. – Mayen Jaymalin