PAGASA sees 1 or 2 more cyclones for 2020

MANILA, Philippines — The state weather bureau said at least one or two more tropical cyclones could enter the country before the end of the year, with La Niña likely to persist until May 2021.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in its climate outlook said that moderate to strong La Niña has further strengthened.

The weather phenomenon is already at its peak through January and will likely continue until March-May 2021.

La Niña means that there is an increased likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions that could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods or landslides over highly vulnerable areas.

There could be at least one tropical cyclone to enter in the months of January to March. Without the La Niña phenomenon, there would be zero or a slim chance for a tropical cyclone.

Most of the country will see above normal rainfall conditions, except for some areas in Mindanao where it is forecast to see near normal conditions.

The country could see back-to-back La Niña events, as there have been six such weather events since 2007.

PAGASA yesterday launched four new forecast products that are expected to help various sectors in preparing for adverse effects of extreme weather disturbances, such as tropical cyclones.

These include the radar mosaic and quality controlled radar data, the PAGASA integrated system for typhoon operations and two subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) products.

The S2S products include the two-week rainfall exceedance probability forecast, and the two-week tropical cyclone threat forecast.

These products are expected to fill gaps in existing forecasts and help sectors, such as agriculture, water resources and national security, better prepare to avoid possible calamities.

PAGASA administrator Vicente Malano said these new programs help the forecast capability on weather, marine meteorology and short-range climate program.