COVID-19 infections in Philippines may reach 90,000 by end-July — UP researcher

Bella Perez-Rubio - Philstar.com
COVID-19 infections in Philippines may reach 90,000 by end-July â UP researcher
In this July 27, 2020, photo, locally stranded individuals set up camp on the bleachers of the football stadium of the Rizal Memorial Sports Complex in Manila at midnight while they wait for their transport back to their provinces as part of the 2nd batch of the Hatid Tulong program of the government.
The STAR / Miguel de Guzman

MANILA, Philippines — A researcher from the University of the Philippines on Monday warned that the number of COVID-19 cases in the country could reach 90,000 by the end of July and 140,000 by the end of August.

Mathematics professor Guido David, a member of the UP OCTA Research group, relayed these amended figures to ABS-CBN after the country on Sunday logged over 2,000 coronavirus cases for the fourth consecutive day.

"Originally, 85,000 was already our upper projection but its possible that we will reach 90,000 [infections] now," he said in Filipino.

David in the first week of July projected 100,000 infections by the end of August but upped that figure by 40,000 on Monday.

He also emphasized that most of the country's new COVID-19 cases are being recorded in Metro Manila which is under a general community quarantine. 

"The trend in Cebu is going down. The curve is being flattened in Cebu. The trend in NCR is going upwards, not just NCR, but Calabarzon as well," he said in FIlipino.

Guido added that while reverting back to an enhanced community quarantine is not an official recommendation of the experts at UP, he says it would help Metro Manila as other measures such as randomized testing and localized lockdowns are not sufficiently curbing the rise in cases.

The health department on July 26 logged 80,448 coronavirus infections.

It has been 132 days since the Philippines was first put under lockdown, marking the longest community quarantine in the world.

Despite the community quarantine and enforcement from police which has resulted in thousands of arrests and has been tagged by lawmakers and rights groups as "overzealous" and "disproportionate," UP researchers have upped their projections for the end of July several times now due to the surge in new cases.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque has warned that the capital region may revert back to an enhanced community quarantine if COVID-19 cases breach 85,000 by month's end.

As It Happens
LATEST UPDATE: November 20, 2021 - 4:10pm

Other regions and provinces in the Philippines considered moderate and low-risk areas will be placed under general community quarantine starting May 1. Bookmark this page for updates. (Main image by The STAR/Edd Gumban)

November 20, 2021 - 4:10pm

The health department registers 1,474 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the national caseload to 2,824,499. 

  • New deaths: 205
  • New recoveries: 2,565
  • Total active cases: 22,070
November 19, 2021 - 4:05pm

The Department of Health reports an additional 1,485 COVID-19 infections, bringing the national tally to to 2,823,210.

  • New deaths: 277
  • New recoveries: 1,393
  • Total active cases: 23,200
November 18, 2021 - 4:26pm

The Department of Health registers 1,297 new COVID-19 cases, biringing the national caseload to 2,821,753.

  • New deaths: 305
  • New recoveries: 1,956
  • Total active cases: 23,158
November 10, 2021 - 4:07pm

The Department of Health registers 2,646 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the national tally to 2,809,311.

  • Active cases: 29,138 or 1.0% of the total
  • Deaths: 99, pushing the count to 44,665
  • Recoveries: 4,029 bringing the number to 2,735,508
November 9, 2021 - 4:11pm

The Department of Health logs 1,409 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the national tally to 2,806,694.

  • Active cases: 30,544 or 1.1% of the total
  • Deaths: 46, pushing the count to 44,567
  • Recoveries: 2,941 bringing the number to 2,731,583
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