Higher pork, chicken imports seen in 2020

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is expected to buy more pork and chicken from the global market as African swine fever (ASF) cases in the country would pull down local supply.

In the latest report of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Foreign Agricultural Service, the Philippines is seen importing 300,000 metric tons of pork meat this year, 13 percent higher from last year’s 265,000 MT.

Domestic production, meanwhile, is seen to decline 10 percent to 1.475 million MT, from 1.675 million MT in 2019.

The USDA has lowered import projection for this year from the earlier 350,000 MT as ASF has not spread as quickly as previously anticipated, resulting in lower-than-expected herd liquidation.

“Higher-than-expected hog supplies and fewer disease impacts boost 2020 production by five percent from the previous estimate but production is forecast to fall 10 percent year-over-year due to ASF impacts,” USDA said.

Consumption was also lowered by eight percent to 1.775 million MT, from 1.939 million MT, as consumers shift to chicken meat.

The Philippines will also hike its chicken meat imports by 13 percent to 390,000 MT from last year’s 345,000 MT.

Local production, which will only increase by 10 percent, will not be able to meet additional domestic consumption of 13 percent to nearly two million MT from 1.76 million MT.

Imports are forecast higher as consumers transition from pork to increasingly price-competitive chicken.

Meanwhile, global production will dip nine percent to 95.38 million MT due to the impact of ASF on swine herds in several major producing countries.

Worldwide consumption of pork will likewise go down by almost the same level.

“A sharply lower breeding herd and continued impacts from ASF will drive production 23 percent lower year-over-year in 2020 in China,” the USDA said.

In Europe, pork production forecasts are revised marginally lower on reduced slaughter.

Most major pork exporters, however, will boost production due to rising global import demand. Production is up robustly in the US, Canada and Brazil.

The USDA noted that global pork exports could reach 10.35 million MT, from 9.47 million MT traded last year.

As for chicken meat, global production will increase four percent to a record 102.92 million MT, and worldwide consumption will also rise at the same pace.

China will account for more than half of the global production increase, driven by improved access to imported genetics and rising meat prices as ASF outbreaks slash domestic pork supplies.

The USDA said global chicken exports next year could also reach a record 12.15 million MT, with Brazil and Thailand making the greatestexport gains.