Noynoy's lead in opinion polls drops, Gibo's rating surges - The Center

MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party (LP) presidential candidate Sen. Benigno Aquino III’s lead in opinion polls has “significantly dropped” to single-digit levels while Lakas-Kampi-CMD standard-bearer Gilberto Teodoro Jr. surged to a double-digit mark for the first time since entering the race, according to results of the first survey taken after the Dec. 1 deadline for candidates to file their certificates of candidacy (COCs).

A poll conducted by the Issues and Advocacy Center (The Center) from Dec. 2 to 6 showed Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nacionalista Party (NP) cut Aquino’s lead to seven points by improving to 24 percent.

“Aquino’s 31 percent rating was described as a ‘stationary dive’ in the Center’s tracking survey but he continues to lead in the super regions – National Capital Region (36 percent), Luzon (31 percent), Visayas (26 percent) and Mindanao (33 percent),” according to Ed Malay, director of the Center.

Malay said the Center interviewed 1,200 respondents pro-rated to the number of voters in the 2007 midterm polls with a margin of error of plus-minus 2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

“The other significant movements were Teodoro’s climb to 10 percent on the strength of his bold decisions on the Maguindanao massacre and his impressive showing in two presidential debates, and former President Joseph Estrada’s 19 percent as he bounced back from last October’s survey,” he said.

“Sen. Dick (Richard) Gordon also began to make his presence felt with eight percent.”

Malay said Teodoro benefited from the positive reviews that he has been generating from the public debates among the presidential aspirants, as well as his handling of the Maguindanao massacre even when he was no longer defense secretary.

In the wake of the Maguindanao massacre, Filipinos “have begun to look not only at the qualifications of the presidential aspirants but also at the experience and capability of each to lead the country in 2010 and beyond,” he added.

Malay said the presidential debates became a springboard for Teodoro by highlighting the qualities of strong leadership and bold ideas associated with strong leaders.

“The debates were most harmful to Noynoy,” he said.

“(They) exposed the weakness and lack of depth on the basic issues by the neophyte senator when ranged against a more knowledgeable and experienced candidate such as Teodoro who topped the 1985 bar exams.”

With the elections five months away, the Center sees a further tightening of the race among the top four or five candidates, Malay said.

Malay described Aquino’s once-formidable lead – driven by public outpouring over his mother’s death in August – as a ”myth” and a “bubble.”

He cited an earlier survey by The Center taken Oct. 19 to 26, 2009 where a “stationary dive” in Aquino ratings was detected.

The survey was the first since Dec. 1 after the candidates had filed their COCs with the Commission on Elections.

Malay said the survey was a more focused and accurate assessment of voters’ sentiments than earlier ones.

“People have started narrowing down their choices and preferences, basing them not on rhetoric but on what each presidential candidate represents such as their platform of governance, family values, advocacy of issues, and the viability of the roadmap each has proposed to lead the Philippines out the political and economic doldrums,” he said.

Malay said the survey asked respondents the question, “Who would you vote for from among the list of nine presidential aspirants (Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar, Erap Estrada, Gibo Teodoro, Dick Gordon, Bro. Eddie Villanueva, JC de los Reyes, Jamby Madrigal and Nicky Perlas) if elections were to be held today?”

Reacting to The Center’s survey, Zambales Rep. Mitos Magsaysay said it only “confirms the crowd-drawing charms of Teodoro, who visited several cities across the country in denims and green polo shirts, even without celebrities in tow.”– Paolo Romero