Cebu City shows signs of ‘herd immunity’ for COVID-19

CEBU, Philippines — The Department of Health-7 has observed a developing “herd immunity” in Cebu City as Central Visayas continues to flatten the epidemiological curve for coronavirus.

DOH-7 Director Jaime Bernadas cited the results of the surveillance testing using anti-body tests on the Carbon market vendors conducted by the DOH and Cebu City Emergency Operations Center last month.

Bernadas disclosed in an online talk via the Facebook page of the Office of the Presidential Assistant for the Visayas that 47.48 percent of the 2,191 Carbon market vendors or 1,047 were tested IgG positive.

This indicates, he said, that these people were asymptomatic and had already recovered from active infection of the virus.

“This is very significant because more and more people have now responded to the exposure of the virus, which means we are on the road to achieving ‘herd immunity,’” Bernadas said.

The DOH-7 chief explained that herd immunity can be achieved if 70 to 80 percent of the community has been exposed to the virus and developed immunity.

On the other hand, there were 63 vendors who yielded IgM positive results but when they underwent PCR tests, only 33 samples were found positive.

He said all the 63 vendors with IgM positive results, including the 33 with positive PCR results, were isolated as they may still transmit the virus.

He also noted that Central Visayas has flattened the curve.

“Our COVID situation in Central Visayas and in Cebu City has really improved a lot from being the hotspot to the better managed pandemic in the entire country, if not the best,” Bernadas said.

As of October 12, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Central Visayas is at 22,671 with a total recovery of 20,309 and with active cases at 1,008.

“It means we are already on the verge of going down to almost less than a thousand cases and on a downward trend, which is a welcome development. And hopefully, this trend continues,” Bernadas said.

Bernadas added that since the start of September, the COVID-19 curve has already flattened for nearly six weeks now.

He said that their data showed that from end of July to October 12, the number of COVID-19 cases has significantly decreased.

Major improvement

Meanwhile, Cebu City Councilor Joel Garganera, who is also the deputy chief implementor of the City’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC) for COVID-19, said that the city is among the areas in the region that has shown major improvement in containing the virus.

“Once tagged as the epicenter of COVID-19, Cebu City has significantly brought down its COVID-19 cases daily, from 13 deaths per day three weeks ago to zero deaths as of October 12,” Garganera said, adding 41 of 80 barangays in the city now have zero COVID-19 cases for the last 14 days.

He added that in the last few days, the city’s COVID-19 cases have been on a single-digit to zero cases, which is a far cry from three months ago.

Garganera said that in June 2020, the city had the most number of deaths at 370. This was down to 180 in July. In August, there were 22 reported deaths and further reduced to 17 in September.

For this month’s first 10 days, the city reported zero deaths, Garganera said.

Region’s ‘weapons’

Bernadas pointed out that among the key factors in the successful management of the COVID-19 crisis in Central Visayas are the continued massive testing, contact tracing and strict implementation of health protocols and the coordinated efforts of the government and the private sector.

However, Bernadas and Garganera agreed that this should not be reason enough to be complacent.

“Remember that as long as there is COVID-19 and no vaccine at hand, everything is still fragile and anything can still happen, let us remain vigilant in our daily activities,” Bernadas said.

Second phase

For her part, DOH-7 chief pathologist and Covid-19 spokesperson Mary Jean Loreche wants a second phase of pooled testing in the Carbon market 90 days from first testing.

The second phase, she said, will determine how long the vendors’ immunity to Covid-19 lasts.

According to the World Health Organization reports, most COVID-19 patients who recovered have antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus detectable in their blood.

Antibodies of most COVID-19 patients develop about one to three weeks after symptoms start or around the time when patients start to recover.

Patients who have had more severe diseases also appeared to have higher levels of important neutralizing antibodies while mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 patients have low levels of neutralizing antibodies.

Recent studies have shown that neutralizing antibodies may disappear after three months. Building on this, Loreche wants to find out if it is the same case as with the Carbon market vendors, especially that foot traffic is heavy in the area.

Garganera said he is okay with Loreche’s plan but will have to consult first with the rest of the members of the EOC before giving a nod to it. — Caecent Noot-Magsumbol /JMD (FREEMAN)